Dismal Jobs Report Yet Again

 

 

Once again we have gotten the Non-Farm Payroll number and once again we have evidence that the economy continues to weaken.  Below you will see a chart of the rate of growth of jobs over the last twelve months.

With the September 2016 number, we can see that growth for the 12 months ending September 2016 is the lowest of the last four years, and the trend for the year overall has been decidedly downward.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve Bank continues to pepper us with upbeat reports of the strength of the Jobs Market in the United States.

When you look at where we are and where we have been the last four years, what conclusion do you draw?

Exactly.

And the October 2016 is gonna have to be a doozy to even keep us at our current level of YOY growth.  What will that number need to be at a minimum?

295 thousand jobs added will need to be the number.  Unless some serious magic occurs, do not expect that to be a possibility.

The economy continues to weaken.  Job growth supports that conclusion. So does Corporate Profits.

At some point the Stock Market Indexes will also have to come to terms with the realization that we are not in the economic reality they continue to believe we are in.

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Is Johns Creek Wandering in the Desert?

Recently it was stated that the City Council of Johns Creek was “wandering in desert”. Since the City Council is supposed to be representative of its residents, the implication is imperfect but clear.

The residents however, are not wandering.  They have been clear and steadfast for years. Traffic. Traffic . Traffic.  That is our # 1 issue.

Neither are the majority of the Council Members that are suggested to be the problem here.  At last,  we have some principles of leadership and governance that are finally seeing the light of day.  They are only seeing that light of day because those Council Members realize they are not there to reach a consensus, but to actually have a dialogue on what principles we are going to follow as a City.

Unfortunately, we still have a few Council Members that are unsure of what their actual principles are, and so we must wait and see how they cast a vote to see where they stand on an issue.

Let’s face it, we cannot wander around Johns Creek.  We cannot get out of town in a reasonable manner.  We cannot get home either.  Our main travel routes take 3-4 times longer during our rush hours than our non-rush hours. It’s been that way for more than 10 years.

Believe me, we know exactly where we are.

Johns Creek was created so that we could take care of our needs which were being ignored by Fulton County. Continue reading

Play or Pay: How We Are Subject to TSPLOST Extortion

Cities in Fulton County are being held up at legislative gunpoint in Fulton County, Georgia, and if they do not play along with how the rules have been written by the State Legislature, their constituents will pay the price.

Cities within Fulton County (I live in Johns Creek) are required to either get on board with a Transportation Local Option Sales Tax (TSPLOST) or run the risk of having the TSPLOST passed in the fall of 2016, and their jurisdictions be subject to the tax and receive nothing. Continue reading

What’s The Real Cost of that MARTA Ride?

MARTA is in the news a lot lately in Fulton County, as they push for more funds to expand heavy rail, especially in North Fulton County.  We are told of the benefits of MARTA, and one could argue that there are indeed benefits, especially for those that do not own vehicles.

MARTA is pushing today for a sales tax increase that would increase their sales tax revenues by 50%.  By doing so, Fulton County will be increasing the subsidies that are given for each MARTA rider.

But what is the true cost of of this Mass Transit system today, and where do the funds come from?  Is it a positive or negative expense when it comes to other modes of transport?

Only 22% of MARTA’s funding comes from fares.

Twenty-two per cent of MARTA’s funding comes from Fare Revenue, 58% from sales tax revenues, and the other 20% from other sources such as State and Federal government.  What would it cost if MARTA relied entirely on fares, and not on sales tax dollars,and federal and state dollars? Continue reading

My Follow-Up to Tom Black on Traffic in Johns Creek

Below is the follow-up letter to Tom Black on the traffic situation here in Johns Creek.  Asking specific questions about the assumptions I have heard at City Council Meetings and other events, I wanted facts explained and less anecdotal observations such as traffic must be heavier from Forsyth County, as they have more new homes.   None of my questions were answered.

 

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Here was the brief reply I received:

“Mr. Moosa many of your conclusions do not agree with the information we have provided you. Plus you are taking issue with common and accepted planning estimates. We will review your attachment to review our conclusions. Thanks Again for your interest in the City of Johns Creek.”

 

 

Response to Traffic Letter From the City of Johns Creek

Below is the response I received from the City of Johns Creek regarding what I feel are misconceptions about our traffic problems.  Were my questions answered or dismissed?

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Below is my response to what I received.  That was summarily dismissed.

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I will let you draw your own conclusions.  If you actually drive our roads, I think you know the answers.

Traffic and Misconceptions in Johns Creek

Below is a letter I sent to the City Council of Johns Creek in September of 2015.  I will also post the City’s response and my follow-up in additional posts.
Johns Creek City Council,
I watched the work session and heard the discussions once again on traffic on 9/9/2015.  I hear repeatedly the increase we have had in traffic is from outside our city and that is the primary reason for our congestion.  I have heard it stated much of this traffic is coming from Gwinnett and Forsyth Counties.
Frankly, that is an easy answer for most people to hear and believe to be true. It’s been repeated enough that people believe it to be true without question.  Is it true, however?  What if it is entirely wrong?
I do not think we are being purposely misled on traffic.  Instead, we are choosing the standard answers that we have heard in years past over and over that made sense.  But that does not mean that they are the correct answers.
I have shared this information with two of our council members in the past.  Unfortunately, I did not receive any feedback, and based on comments stated at the meetings I have observed, it has either been overlooked or dismissed entirely.   Yet we are making multi-million dollar decisions on roads and the future shape of travel in Johns Creek.
Here’s what we do know: 1) Our population has increased sharply since 2000.  2) Traffic volumes have not.
If the GDOT data is correct, then we would have to have a shift away from “through traffic” and if our population has increased, then more of our trips would be originating here in Johns Creek, for us to have relatively stable and flat traffic volumes.
Below are the Georgia DOT traffic counts over the last twenty plus years at the sites where the DOT takes annual measurements.  Please take a look at this data, and if you have better data, it should be shared.
The five links below represent the annual traffic surveys by the Georgia DOT on 141 just south of the river through Johns Creek, and ending in Forsyth County.  I invite you to look at each station.  Where are these increases that have lead to our severe congestion during rush hours?
None of these traffic monitoring stations confirm what is being said as to why traffic is worse in Johns Creek.  I have looked at traffic from the Georgia DOT along State Bridge Road, 120, and other major roads in Johns Creek.  I know and understand what GDOT says are the trends on these roads.  I have also looked at surrounding communities, such as Peachtree Industrial Blvd and Pleasant Hill Road, to see what is happening outside of our cities. All of these data points paint a very different picture about traffic.
Is the Georgia DOT wrong?  Do we just dismiss this data because it does not fit with our beliefs?  Should we let traffic myths drive our decisions?
Or do we have another reason for why traffic is so tied up here?   Are you willing to objectively look at it before we spend millions upon millions of dollars on solutions?
More than a fast solution, we need the right solution.  And if we spend millions attempting to resolve the wrong problem, what will that solve?
If we do not have good data, we will not have good decisions being made.  What data is being used to support the idea that our problems are coming from through traffic?
Better results demand better analysis.  I suggest that means giving us a clear picture of where we were, where we are, and where we are headed when it comes to proposed solutions.  And I just do not see that when it comes to traffic.
The Georgia DOT gives us a pretty good view of where we were, and where we are.  From there we can make educated guesses as to where we are headed.  This data from the GDOT is available to anyone that wants to look at it, see what it says, and even question it.  One data point you can dismiss.  But how can you dismiss them all?
I have looked at this data.
Will you?
I look forward to a reply.
Respectfully,
Ernest Moosa
Once you click on the link, you will then need to click on Annual Statistics.  The data is presented both numerically and graphically.

MARTA: It’s Not About Racism-It’s About the Math

MARTA_trainSince the beginning of the Mass Transit era in the Atlanta metropolitan area, I’ve constantly heard the arguments that the reason people were against the transit system was racism.

This is usually the moment that the local politician or commentator makes the statement about how people feared that their homes would be broken into and their tv set stolen and taken away on a bus or train. It’s a tired example, and an inaccurate example. Continue reading

My Letter to the Johns Creek City Council on the Bell Road Rezoning Case for High Density Apartments

Council Members:
I am asking you to vote against the rezoning of the properties located at Bell Road and 141, which is on tonight’s agenda.
This location has become another Ground Zero for gridlock in Johns Creek.  We now have four traffic lights over .7 miles, from Skyway Drive north to Johns Creek Parkway.  During morning and evening rush hours, I have used Google maps to track the commute times through this area and the average time to travel this very short distance averages 8-9 minutes, and I have seen it as high as 11 minutes to get through the four lights.  That is less than 10 miles per hour through this area.  Normal travel should be three minutes, according to Google.  As the City also uses Waze(a Google product), I hope that you accept that data as accurate.
The much higher density that the rezoning will allow will only make this issue worse.  Anecdotal suggestions that this development will not make things worse are not fact based.  We do not know exactly what or how the tenants that choose to live there will act on a day to day basis.  We can only make assumptions.
The only way that this property can be built to this density is with your approval, and ignoring the comprehensive land use plan.
Isn’t it time we put the current residents of Johns Creek ahead of those residents who may not even live here in Johns Creek and might become tenants of this development?
I’ll be frank.  Living in the Medlock Bridge neighborhood, I will not even consider traveling north on 141 between 4:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m., unless I am headed to City Hall. It’s not worth the hassle.
Please make the right choice and reject this high density rezoning case.
I also encourage you to ask just how many additional units are permitted by giving the zoning variances versus what the property currently allows.  The height variance, for instance, allows for how many more units? What is the difference to what our zoning would allow as it stands today, and what they are seeking?
Does this equal 10, 20, or even 50% more units?
If the CLUP needs to be changed, then we as a community should change it first.  We should not continue to “variance” ourselves to an ever higher density in Johns Creek on a case by case basis.
Respectfully,
Ernest Moosa