My estimate is 123k in NFP jobs for the month of May.
For the we are losing 1/10th of a percent on the rate of annual jobs growth at this time. If that trend continued in May(and there is no reason to think not), this is where we should be.
The jobs number came in at a whopping 280k for May 2015. Frankly, we should already be seeing these job numbers fall sharply. The place where the dollars come from that should fuel job growth-profits…well, they are just not there.
I do recognize that the jobs numbers reported today are not of the same substance as they were ten years ago. The shift from full to part time jobs is real, but there is no adjustment to the NFP release.
March and April 2015 jobs were also revised higher, opposite of what one might expect with the negative GDP data for the first quarter of 2015, as well as nearly every other bit of economic data.
With the economy down, profits down, consumption down(should I go on?) does it make sense that hiring is accelerating?
I do not think so.