It’s All About Consequences

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We have been thrown into a world that is going under. And suddenly it strikes me what all of the issues we face have in common: Consequences.

Freedom is inevitably tied to consequences. Decisions are tied to consequences. Choices are tied to consequences. And what we see today is that everyone wants freedom, make decisions and choose what they want without consequences.

But the consequences are not going away.

You cannot take away the weapons from law-abiding citizens and not suffer the consequences of thugs and thieves exploiting this opportunity.

You cannot defund the police and then be shocked when the consequence is more assault and criminal activity.

You cannot cheapen life by pushing abortion for free and at any time and not suffer the consequence of a lack of respect for life.

You cannot choose to change your gender when born a male and then compete against females without consequences. The other female athletes will suffer the consequences from your decision.

You cannot choose to halt energy production and not suffer the consequences of higher fuel prices and shortages.

You cannot choose to have all of your drugs produced outside of your nation and then suffer the consequences when that nation invades Taiwan(coming soon).

You cannot tell automakers that they must build vehicles that achieve an insane MPG average and not suffer the consequences of a sudden drop in demand as the vehicles underperform.

You cannot print money, borrow money and run the debt up to astronomical levels and nut suffer the consequences when rates rise and the purchasing power of your currency collapses.

The consequences are coming. They will demand tough choices are made. And if you elected individuals based on their liberalism, skin color or sex, there will be consequences for not electing the most qualified and fit individuals for those positions.

You should be prepared to suffer the consequences.

Every choice has consequences. So think before you choose. Or suffer the consequences for the poor choices.

Don’t Suspend The Fuel Taxes!!!

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Tax Games Hide The Impact Of Poor Government Decisions

Both the United States and the state of Georgia are moving rapidly to suspend fuel taxes to negate the impact of high fuel costs in the US. The reason for these high prices are poor decisions by President Joe Biden and the Federal Government as they have tried to eliminate Internal Combustion Engines in the US.

Biden’s failure to keep America energy independent needs to be addressed. Reducing the impact of his failures, even temporarily, is just a feel-good effort. As always, government officials feel they have to do something, even if it does not really do anything. Often it makes matters worse. The high prices should be a constant reminder that elections have consequences.

But the costs of driving on roads that will need repairs as well as the construction of new roads will still need to happen. Revenue for those projects will have to be funded. And if they are not funded, then it will just continue to add to the debt.

Paying For What You Use

We should be paying for what we use. We need to understand there is a direct cost for what we use. Masking the costs by eliminating the fuel taxes, and then paying for highways from other resources reduces the transparency of the costs of government in the US.

Leave the taxes in place as a frequent reminder to all Americans that there is a cost to what government does. Americans need to be screaming about the pain at the pump. Temporary tax reductions does not do anything to improve the supply of fuel in the future.

This Is How Lies Work

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Reporting Altered Numbers to Sway Public Opinion

On February 4th, 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Non-Farm Payroll number, and it was a surprise to the financial markets, exceeding everyone’s expectations.

The following week, despite dozens of pundits such as myself, the jobs number as being great. Unfortunately, the number which was reported is altered using what the BLS calls a “seasonal adjustment”. Using this seasonal adjustment, we were told that the US Economy added 467,000 jobs, despite the effects of Omicron.

Here are just a few of the headlines that you will find when searching for this report:

Surprisingly strong jobs report: America adds 467,000 positions in January

U.S jobs report shows substantial growth

Latest jobs report shows positive development after pandemic slump

And yet the real number of jobs is so far from what has been reported that it should be considered an outright lie.

Seasonal Adjustments

The magic of “seasonal adjustments” has taken a real negative number and turned it into something positive for the media to report. Just how much magic?

The real jobs number was a loss of 2,824,000 jobs. The US economy lost nearly three million jobs in January 2022 and yet the headlines are entirely different.

In January 2022, the US had 147,525,000 people working. That is -2,824,000 from the previous month.

You are being manipulated.

Even the term “seasonal adjustment” is a flat out lie. If they were, you should be able to expect that the same seasonal factors would apply to both January AND February as they are the same season.

Wrong.

Each month is adjusted in a different manner and in a way that no one knows what that adjustment will be.

And it changes from year to year.

What’s the objective?

These seasonal adjustments keep the real truth from the American people. But businesses cannot use that number to plan for expanding their business for it is wrong and misleading.

Too much emphasis has been placed on the monthly release of the NFP Payroll number in the first place. And now that the lie of jobs gains for January has been repeated to the Nth degree and everyone seems to accept it as real and positive, it is simply a lie.

Why not just tell the truth?

Bitcoin, Tesla, and Reality

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Author’s Note: I do not own Bitcoin or any cryptocurrencies nor do I own an EV. I do own Au, AG, and two diesel vehicles.

Bitcoin: The currency with a limit as to how many can be mined, but effectively no limit on how many times it can be subdivided

Cryptocurrency: Electronic currency that has no limit to the numbers and varieties that can be produced.

Tesla: The first EV to be successfully mass-marketed for the general population.

I’ll be honest. I have BTC fatigue. I’ll add to that Tesla fatigue as well.

It turns out BTC and Tesla have a lot in common. Both provide transportation. BTC for purchasing power and Tesla for people.

But beyond that, they are subject to competition from others. And that competition will continue coming until BTC and Tesla are, for the lack of a better term, has-beens.

Much is made about BTC and the limit to the number of units that will be mined. But does that really matter? Will it make a difference to the market that it will be a “limited” production?

Experience says no. We have had limited editions of all sorts of vehicles in our lives. Where are they today?

For those that like Cryptocurrencies, BTC will be replaced by one with more availability that appeals to the masses. BTC is already being replaced on the fringes of the crypto market.

Tesla is in the same boat. There were waiting lists to acquire a Tesla. Demand is still there. But nearly every automaker in existence when Tesla hit the markets now has EV offerings of their own. And some of these vehicles are arguably much better than a Tesla.

Then there are the new EV companies that appeared to compete as well. More will be coming in the future.

Ironically, the EV market is based on some gross lies. Calling an EV a zero-emissions vehicle is a lie. The production of an EV produces emissions in manufacturing, transport to the customer, and in most cases during the production of the electricity used to charge it.

The Cryptocurrency sector is also based on some falsehoods. It is not leading a green energy revolution. Instead, it is raising the costs of energy for all doing needless computer algorithms. It is also claimed that it is a “store of value”. But if you lose access to your storage for BTC, that value is gone. Not just for you, but anyone. It just no longer exists.

Think about that.

Seasonally Adjusted Data: Does It Make The Data More Useful?

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The Data You Rely On Might As Well Be Picked From A Cloud

Employment Numbers Are A Driving Market Statistic

Twelve times a year the financial markets sit on the edge of their seats waiting for the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data. Stock prices can soar or sink, politicians can claim success or suffer negative headlines and in theory, businesses just might alter future business plans based on what they are seeing.

Earlier this month I asked if we live in a seasonally adjusted world:

https://ejmoosa.com/do-you-function-in-a-seasonally-adjusted-world/

What other aspects of our life are seasonally adjusted when we are given the data? Not many if any at all. You would not shop for a vehicle using seasonally adjusted pricing. Nor would you dress properly for winter with a seasonally adjusted forecast.

Magnitude of the Adjustments

Watching Fox Business News or CNBC and watching the guests discuss their estimates for the Non-Farm Payroll number, never did I imagine the magnitude of the adjustments being made. For example, if the estimates ranged from 175k to 250k, I thought the Seasonal adjustment might be 40-50,000. Not the magnitude I found. Let’s have a look:(remember that the Seasonally adjusted data released is the real number plus( or minus) the numbers for the month listed below):

Jan:  3,050,000

Feb:  (691,636)

March: (603,545)

April: (853,545)

May: (593,929)

June: (326,364)

July: 1,271,000

August: (156,700)

Sept.: (378,300)

October: (780,300)

Nov: (277,400)

Dec: 347,300

Seasonal Adjustments Leave False Impressions

Looking at just how large the adjustments are for each month is puzzling. Take a look at the average January adjustment listed :3,050,000. In reality, the economy could actually shrink by 2,000,000 jobs and the BLS will report that we added 1,050,000 jobs for the month of January. Does that make sense to you?

It makes no sense to be because what is reported and what is actually happening is not the same.

How do businesses make solid decisions on what is happening and what they should be doing to take advantage of the data if the data does not reflect the real world?

Is the American public too stupid to understand that lots of jobs are lost in January as the temporary Christmas jobs are terminated? Or do the seasonal adjustments mislead the Public because it is so easy to seasonally adjust giving people the perception of a more level and consistent economic environment?

What’s the Solution?

Because of the disconnect between Seasonally Adjusted Data and reality, I suggest we reduce the reliance on such misleading data. And to dump your investments in one sector and buy in another because of a blockbuster jobs number that is more a work of fiction than fact is likely a mistake.

But those that are profiting from this are those that make money when you buy and sell. They like this volatility created by the data because it causes knee-jerk reactions across the financial spectrum.

An obviously fictionalized number depicting economic activity that is anything but accurate is no way to manage your portfolio.

And that is the Naked Truth.

Inflation is Rising and Packaging is Shrinking

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The Double Whammy of Inflation and Shrinkflation Are Just Getting Started

In a steep acceleration for prices where many people live, FRED is gracious enough to show us the rate of inflation for June 2021 along with a chart dating back well before 1970.

Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2021/07/15/inflation-expectations-the-phillips-curve-and-the-feds-dual-mandate?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=202108%20Research%20Newsletter&utm_content=202108%20Research%20Newsletter+CID_921402a9d24e9c41b5beabca068bd6cc&utm_source=Research%20newsletter&utm_term=Page%20One%20Economics%20essay

Ironies

Ironically, the story linked above justifies higher inflation than zero to prevent deflation(prices falling) yet if you look at the chart image, deflation has rarely been an issue over the last fifty years(2010).

Shrinkflation: What You Think You See May Not Be What You Get

Pictured below are two Tillamook Ice Cream containers. The product on the store shelves offered both containers for the same price: $5.99. That translates to an increase of 14.2% in price. Because the containers shrank and the prices are the same we call this Shrinkflation. And it stinks.

It stinks because unless you look carefully you might not notice the differences.

Shrinkflation: Same Price but a smaller Container. At least it has the same great taste, right?

Have you looked closely at your shredded cheeses lately? Choose carefully. While many are still 8 ounces(Two Cups) more and more are down to 7 ounces (or less).

Packages across the board are shrinking and this hides the real inflation we are seeing every day as they hold prices the same but you get less.

Hiding the inflation does all consumers a disservice. If the inflation is hidden from us, then we as consumers are not getting a clear perception of what our currency can and cannot buy.

Your dollars are losing their purchasing power. And at 5% or higher inflation, they will be losing that purchasing power faster than anyone has witnessed since the 1980s.

Unless you are getting salary increases to keep up with inflation, you and your family are going to be falling behind economically.

“Adjusted for inflation, hourly compensation fell 2.7 percent in the second quarter, data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the nonfarm business sector showed Tuesday.” Source: Breitbart

Conclusion:

Choosing a rate of inflation at 2% or higher and calling your currency stable is simply false. Sooner or later the flames of inflation will jump the perceived control of the Fed and burh through the economy creating havoc and harm.

The US Dollar needs to be tied to a stable form of money such as gold, and interest rates need to be allowed to rise and fall as supply and demand dictate.

The damage we are doing to our economic well being will not be reversed any time soon and the cures for the damage are likely to accelerate the damage as we have seen in years past.

Do You Function In A Seasonally Adjusted World?

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Seasonally Adjusted Data: Does it Help?

Last Friday (August 6,2021) the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their preliminary jobs data for July and it was a doozy. The BLS reported that 943,000 jobs were added to the economy in July. 2021.

Sounds pretty impressive right? Too good to be true? Well, it really is too good to be true. Worse, it’s a lie.

Work in The Real Economy

In the real world where people get up and go to work and get a check for their labors is not seasonally adjusted. Fortunately, the BLS also shares that data(but no one else seems to notice it). Without the seasonal adjustments, the economy lost 133,000 jobs in July.

Let me repeat that: There were 133,000 fewer jobs earning pay in July than in June.

Seasonal Adjustments

Trying to think of what other aspects of our lives have seasonal adjustments I simply could not come up with any. We have seen that gasoline prices tend to rise in the summer and fall towards winter, but I’ve yet to hear any seasonal adjustments applied to the gas price to make these changes seem more palatable for us.

How Much Is This Seasonal Adjustment?

Non-Farm Payroll For July
NSASAAdjustment
2016-9733711344
2017-11032281331
2018-11641491313
2019-10581931251
202060617261120
2021-1339431076
Comparison of Job Numbers Adjustment 2016-2021

Million Plus Jobs Added Every July

As you can see in the table above, the BLS adds more than 1 million jobs every July. The jobs must be taken away during other months when we actually have created jobs. Does this lead to better decisions made by those that use this data? It’s hard for me to see how that is possible when the whole objective is meant to gauge the health of the US economy.

In our situation for July, we would have to lose more than 1 million jobs in July to even get close to showing no job growth. I find that simply stunning. Even in a terribly July, we’d still find solace that we were still adding jobs to the economy with the Seasonally Adjusted NFP (although we’d be lying to ourselves).

Using Unadjusted Numbers Paints a Different Picture

Would you have a different picture of the economy if we used the real data? Let’s look at this potential headline if we used the real data:

“July NFP Loses 133,000 Jobs Despite Low Interest Rates and States Re-Opening”

I think it speaks for itself. Don’t you? Somewhere, George Orwell is smiling knowing that he was right.

Corporate Profit Growth Continues to Sink

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Corporate profit growth is an excellent indicator of the health of an economy. After all, the reason one is in business is to generally grow profits.

As I have written in years past Know Profit No Growth (No Profits No Growth)

For the 10 years ending the first quarter of 2021, profit growth has fallen to 3.6% annually. Compare that to the ten years ending the first quarter of 2011 and you see just how poor we are doing: 10%.

Think about that. With all of the Fed easing, corporate tax cuts, ultra low interest rates and government giving out money, we have 1/3 of the growth of the previous decade.

So is the Fed keeping us afloat, or are they the cause of what ails us. I know what I believe. Below is an image of the rate of profit growth annually for the ten years ending in the year listed (first quarter each year). And for kicks, I’ve included the numbers of what the Fed balance sheet was along the way.

White County Wants To Raise Your Property Taxes

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White County News Editorial Submission

I’ve been reviewing the Certified Audited Financial Results(CAFR) for White County for 2020. Total tax revenues have been increasing at an annual rate of 3.46% per year since 2011. 

Their argument for the tax increase is the increasing population.  But the population has only been increasing at a rate of 1.25% per year since 2011. The justification for a property tax increase is weak:

“The White County Board of Commissioners works diligently to keep White County’s millage rate as low as possible while providing the necessary services to the ever-growing population and want to stress that their intent is to maintain the current millage rate of 10.75.”

They are going to need a better and more comprehensive statement to convince me that they are not just taking the easy path for additional revenue, allowing people to think that they are not raising taxes as they emphasize that the millage rate is the same.

This process starts with an updated tax digest (sum value of all taxable properties).  A rollback rate is determined.  That is the millage rate that would generate the same revenues as last year from the taxable properties. 

Our tax commissioners should determine how much is needed and then determine what the millage rate to generate that amount of revenue is. 

Instead, they are using last year’s millage rate and multiplying it by the new digest to determine how much they can get and then where can they spend it.  That is a tax increase. 

Property taxes are only one source of funding for White County (51%).  Sales taxes are also a large contribution and they have also risen in the last year.

Please quit repeating that the millage rate is staying the same as if this is not a tax increase for our county.  The Georgia Taxpayer Bill of Rights states this is a tax increase.  Treat it as such and justify it accordingly or choose the Rollback rate for our next property tax bill. 

With the year many of us have had, we do not need a property tax due to inflated real estate values.

Here’s What We Do Know About the Trump-Biden Presidential Race

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Difference in Support

Trump supporters were more enthusiastic than any Republican candidate over the last 50 years.

Biden support was non-existent.

The Campaign

Trump worked tirelessly campaigning most of the election year and had large crowds wherever he went.

Biden seemed to be staying out of sight as much as possible and his crowds were smaller than Hillary Clinton’s.

The Speeches

Trump could speak hours on end and off the cuff with few, if any gaffes.

Biden consistently misspoke and was incoherent at times.

Trump says America First.

Biden says the rest of the world first.

Campaign Promises

In addition, Trump cut taxes, gave conservatives three Supreme Court Justices, gave the names of others he would nominate if the need arises, and did not get the United States into one new war.

Biden campaigned on raising taxes, refused to discuss the candidates for Supreme Court openings, refused to comment on “packing the court”, and is itching to return to the previous diplomatic ways of the United States.

Election Results

Trump got more Black support, Latino support, Cuban support, and Asian support than he did in 2016.

Consequently, Biden had to get less support from those groups.

Trump got the support of nearly all Police groups in the US.

Biden did not.

Bizarre Results

In Georgia in counties where Trump won, Senator Perdue received even more support.

In counties where Trump lost, like Gwinnett County, liberal issues like mass transit did not pass.

With all of that in mind, Biden got more votes then any other candidate for President other than Trump did in this same race.

And with all of that in mind, Biden got more votes than Hillary Clinton, who was loved and embraced by the left, and was actually able to draw crowds and attract attention.

Conclusion?

When your grandchildren discuss this election in Civics class, if it still exists, will they look at this outcome and conclude that something was amiss.

Inquiring minds want to know.