Quantitative Easing and The Impact on Jobs: Disaster Looming Straight Ahead

If you have been following my work for some time, you know that I have expressed belief that there is a strong correlation between Corporate Profit Growth and job growth in the United States.
My research had shown that there was a very high correlation between those two numbers. The higher the profit growth year over year, then the higher the job growth 4-5 quarters later.

Have a look at the following data. We have higher job growth with profit at lower levels? What is wrong with this picture?

Profits Jobs
Sep-10 -29.11% 0.09%
Sep-11 32.94% 1.66%
Sep-12 6.55% 1.48%
Sep-13 11.77% 1.79%
Sep-14 1.10% 2.04%
Sep-15 1.89% 2.05%
Profit Growth % from previous year
Job Growth % 4 quarters ending date shown

At the time I discovered this relationship, the correlation was .91 or so. This would imply that 81% of job growth was related to profit growth. And as I have written and suggested to anyone that would listen, if you wanted more job growth, you enabled more profit growth in the business sector. Using the same time frames as before, I watched the correlation fall from .81 to .57, suggesting that only 32% of job growth was now due to profit growth. Disappointing to me to be sure, but it was still a positive correlation Continue reading

Rand Paul’s Falling Behind-Is There Anything That Can Be Done?

rand paulRand Paul faces a series of major decisions. He has lost the edge he came into office with. His positions are dulling as he listens to advisors that tell him he needs to be more inclusive. WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Paul needs to be so clear on his positions that anyone(and I mean anyone friend or foe) knows where he stands and what his reply would be.

Rand has made some critical mistakes along the way. But he is still young. Let’s see if he can learn from them and correct his course.

Here are three things I suggest he do immediately:
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1) Apologize for supporting McConnell

Let’s face it. This was a mistake. Rand showed us that his loyalties were to the party and a fellow Kentuckian, even if that Kentuckian was wrong for America. And since then we have paid a heavy price for this choice. Rand could have had another ally in the Senate had he not supported McConnell.

2) Take a hard line on the border and illegal immigrants. Libertarians support an open border ONLY if crossing it does not come with food stamps, welfare, housing and medicare. Crossing the border into the US should not mean you get all the perks of citizenship.

Donald Trump has shown clearly that this is the single biggest issue we all have at this moment. We have been told for decades that something would be done. It hasn’t. The needs of law-abiding citizens are secondary to the wants of illegal aliens. And we are being bullied from all directions that we must accept illegals. We do not. If your native country sucks, I am sorry. But it’s NOT my problem.

3) Start attacking the Fed. The Fed has painted themselves into a corner. We are screwed. If you cannot make the most of this opportunity, you never will.

We are on the cusp of a major economic event. The Fed is at the root of the problem. It’s going to be hard. But we must remove our economic outcome away from the idea that printing more money, and borrowing future demand to shore up businesses today is the answer. Our future is dismal if we do not act soon. It may very well be too late. But Paul can boost his standing by continuing to highlight the mistakes the Federal Reserve is making(and who is getting rich on their coattails).
End the Fed

Rand has decide where he stands if he wants us to stand with him. As of now, I think he is trying to play both sides. I am not sure where he stands.

That will be a fatal mistake to his campaign. There are 15 flavors of vanilla being offered by the Republican slate. And then there’s Trump. Rand needs to show what his true flavor is.

Paul has potential. He has shown courage. But he has faltered over the last twelve months. I suggest he pause and look around. Are those advising him of what he needs to do palying inside the box? Or are they thinking outside the box?

This game will be won outside the box. So why continue to play inside the box?
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Introducing the Fulton County Residential Authority( Or Why We Should Not have the Fulton County Development Authority)

I’d like to propose (for illustration only) a new agency for Fulton County.  We will call it the Fulton County Residential Authority(FCRA).  This authority will do for residents what the Fulton County Development Authority(FCDA) does for businesses.

Fulton County needs to attract some of the best and brightest residents out there who are looking for new homes.  There are many attractive locations, and it would be in Fulton County’s own best interest to attract them here.

We can attract them by helping them get the financing they need for their homes.  We will help them to float bonds for their residences, and offer tax incentives for those that are willing to purchase those bonds.

thankyouCurrent residents that are already in their homes?

We will offer you a hearty thank you. Thank you for not questioning our actions.[read more=”Read more” less=”Read less”]

Thank you for continuing to pay the full taxes on your property.

Thank you Thank you Thank you.   (If you are one of our valued residents come in and chat-we may be able to work a favorable deal for you as well)

We will also offer through the FCRA property tax breaks for you that will lower your cost of residency during your first ten years.  We will lower your property taxes by 50%, and then slowly increase your taxes over the years.  And if needed to keep you happy, we will work with you to help lower those taxes in other ways as well.  We are here for you.

thankyouCurrent residents that are already in their homes, and paying the full tax rates without any abatements-once again we offer you a hearty thank you!

 

 

 

Once a month, the FCRA will get together and look over the list of those who have applied for an inducement to have their residence within Fulton County.  We will be evaluating you based on what you say will be the benefits of having you here.

Are you a high income earner and will be spending dollars?  There’s a plus.

Going to be hiring a maid and lawn care and nannies?  Babies on the way? Greater purchases of goods and job creation is always a plus.

Building a new home versus a resale?  Even better. Raw materials purchased.  Building permits and inspections.   More jobs.

So we invite you to apply.  Make your case.  Help make Fulton County a better place for all.  Your FCRA will make the right choices picking the right new residents for Fulton County.

Crying-baby-cartoon_0For those current residents who will be living besides our beneficiaries of the FCRA, do not be concerned, upset, or feel cheated.  These new residents will add value.  They are bringing in new construction projects, jobs, and other intangibles.

We assure you this will not lead to overbuilding or speculation in our markets.  Do not look at these new residents as getting a tax break at your expense.  Look at it as incremental revenue that we will spend on behalf of everyone.

Let’s create the FCRA and do for residents what we are doing so well for our business community!

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Now that you have a sense of how the Fulton County Residential Authority might work, you can see why I would oppose the Fulton County Development Authority.

It picks winners actively and losers passively.  Current businesses pay more taxes than those that make deals with the FCDA.

It encourages speculation and overbuilding.

My list is long as to why I think the FCDA is a bad idea.  Despite the fact that “everyone has or wants a development authority”, it artificially stimulates demand for commercial space.  It also comes with a price: Property Tax Abatements.

Treat everyone and every business equally.  If the idea is accepted that lower taxes stimulate(as the FCDA can affirm by why it does what it does), then lower taxes across the board for EVERYONE.

Lower business taxes for everyone.  It’s the only equitable way to do business.

If you create a business environment that benefits ALL participants then that is the single best thing you can do.

Do not penalize current businesses by giving newcomers better deals and tax breaks.

It’s just that simple.

If you create that sort of environment for your businesses, you will not have to “induce” them to be in your community.  Instead, they will beat a path to your community, and everyone will benefit.

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Heading Closer and Closer to the Recessionary Wall

Much of the financial information we get on a daily basis tends to shape our perspectives of how the economy is doing.  Unfortunately, much of that data tends to be a first pass WAG (wild-assed guess), which has often proven to be more wrong than right.

Take the the numbers for job creation, which are released monthly by the BLS, for example.  They are definitely NOT rooted in reality.  But what happens is when the revision for a month comes out, the attention is focused squarely on the new WAG for the most recent month.

Other economic numbers of varying degrees of significance experience similar releases, and are also, more or less WAGs.

I have, over the course of the last 10 years, been working on a different approach, although it lags the headline grabbing urgency of a July number for job creation, for instance.  No, instead, my numbers crawl along slowly, three to four months behind.  But they are clearly superior.  I do not give you false hope with WAGS.  I do not sound false alarms with WAGS.  I also do not have to provide seasonal adjustments or other economic tricks.  I have no reason to inject bias into the numbers.  They are what they are.

While many economists also love to focus on top line growth, I have been dissuaded from putting too much importance on that line.  Instead, it’s the bottom line growth that drives the US economy forward in the long term.  This line is where the dollars come from for new expansion, new pay increases, new product development: the keys to real growth.

And unfortunately, the news I have to share is not positive.

Per Share Profit Growth

 

Here is a chart depicting the rate of profit growth year over year for the last four quarters on a per share basis for 1625 companies I track.  So, had you owned one share in each of these companies, one year ago and today, you would have seen your earnings grow by 5.27%, down from 8.40% a year ago, and 34.64% four years ago.[read more=”Read more” less=”Read less”]

One must keep in mind that Valueline drops companies that are heading in the wrong direction and add companies that are headed in the right direction.  So this data tends to have a natural bias towards the better businesses overall.

What’s going to be the stimulus to returning businesses to higher profit growth?

I simply cannot come up with any ideas that might be able to do it.  I can tell you what is working to drag profits even lower.

Higher interest rates.

Higher tax rates.

More regulations.

Increases in minimum wages in various locations.

Continued implementation of Obamacare.

So, we are at a junction where things need to get better but can’t.  Where will that send us?  What happens next?

Once the lack of growth in the chart above is acknowledged, the joy of owning stocks will become a fond memory.  Those stellar returns since the last bottom will disappear faster than the vapor from that E-cig your kids are smoking.

This recession will be unlike the last one.  The Federal Reserve cannot cut rates.  Too many businesses have taken on too much debt to buy back shares at their peaks (they should have been selling shares at the peak).  Companies used to be in the business of issuing shares to expand their businesses.  Today?  They borrow dollars to buyback shares to make their earnings per share look good.

Meanwhile the total profits of the Dow 30 will fall by 9% in 2015.  But fear not.  Their per share numbers look better than should.

States with the most issues financially have been able to mask the smell of their stinking liabilities so far.  But that gig is nearly up.  Puerto Rico is a hint of things to come.  Chicago is not far behind.

I suggest you prepare for the downturn which is coming.  Many of us were able to grin and bear the last downturn.

This one…well it’s gonna hurt.

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Economies Of Scale Vs. Scope of Government

One of the greatest mysteries to me is why we see no economies of scale the bigger cities get and the bigger governments get.  And I think that I am on the brink of resolving that mystery for myself finally.

For our example, we will take two municipalities of obviously different size: Johns Creek and Atlanta.  Both have the same state government, operate in the same environmental and economic environments and co-exist 15 miles or so apart.

And without evening providing the numbers that support the statement, we all know that it is much more expensive from a tax perspective to live in Atlanta than Johns Creek.

I have decided to provide the numbers after it was suggested that they were important.

Brief back of the envelope calculations shows that the City of Atlanta spends $1265 per resident while Johns Creek spends $637.  And on property taxes. the City of Atlanta has a millage rate 30% higher than Johns Creek.

As a more or less rational thinker, this has left me puzzled more often than not.  What is it that makes it more expensive per capita to provide services to the public, which seem to defy the concept of Economies of Scale that function flawlessly in other aspects of our life?

And then it hit me.  It’s NOT the economies of scale that are at question.  It’s the scope of government services provided.

At this point I am going to add another city to our conversation.  This one is fictional, but we all have a good understanding of how it is defined: Mayberry.

The city of Mayberry provided the most basic of services for the common good.  Court, jail, police, fire and education.

All the residents were potential beneficiaries of these services.

But when a city gets larger, like Johns Creek has, then more services are provided. Wants seem to morph into needs.   And these services may not benefit all citizens but a sub-section.     At first, it might be that a new service benefits 90% of the public. We tax all for the benefit of those 90%.  And 10% pay for services they never use.

Then the City grows larger.  Soon we add additional services, and then more additional services until the new services aret being used by 10% or less of the population and are being subsidized by the 90% that are not using them.

The larger the city the smaller the beneficiary group as a % of the whole needs to be.

Much to the chagrin of dog lovers, I’ll use the example of dog parks.  (and I love the name of the Chattapoochie Dog Park in Gwinnett so I am not a total grump).  Here’s a service provided by municipalities that only benefits dog owners.  More specifically, it only benefits that sub-segment of dog owners that want to take their dogs to a park to roam around.  If 1 in ten residents in Johns Creek have taken their pooch to the park more than 6 times in a year, I’d be shocked.

Were Johns Creek to get large enough, we’d likely have a different park for small dogs, and big dogs.  Even larger and we would have one for medium sized dogs.

We see the same effect with Arts Centers, Aquatic Centers, Nature Centers (insert the others you know are coming here).  We also see it with other services the City decides that they must provide such as bulk recycling.  The list becomes endless as long as there are funds to start the program.  And they never end. Get a few federal or state dollars to start and it’s a certainty to get started and be with you forever more.

Which brings us back to my original observation.  There are no economies of scale for bigger and bigger cites because the scope of the services these cities provide expand in such a way that there are fewer users as a % of the population, forcing the majority to subsidize them.  By the end the 99% are funding programs for the 1% that use them.

How does one reign in the “service creep” that cities seem to engage in the larger they get?

One answer would be to set a minimal level of actual users that a city expects to see from this service.  Fifty per cent would be a good starting point for discussion’s sake.

Another answer would be to cut the funds flowing into the cities that fund such projects of such a narrow scope.  To do so you will need to be ready to speak up to your local government and say “NO!”.

As a Libertarian, this is exactly why I am for  a smaller government.  Let’s do the things that we need to do for everyone’s benefit, and do them the best we can.

Then we could see economies of scale.  We could lower our taxes, and those with dogs, for instance, could fund their own private dog park with their own dollars.

Otherwise, where does the “Service Creep” end?

That’s my opinion.  I’d love to hear yours.

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This Time, It Is Going To Be Very Different

The Federal Reserve today ended it’s meeting without raising the Fed Funds Rate.  As you can see by the chart below (Time-wise it reads from right to left), the Fed Fund Rate has been near zero for a long time.

So long, in fact that it has seen the peak of our most recent economic upswing (Much shallower than the last peak AND shorter in duration) and our return back to the shores of recession, all without a single rate hike.

Those that have followed my conversations in the past will recall that I firmly and unquestionably believe that the single greatest indicator to the health of the economy is Business Profits After Taxes, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  This number cannot be as easily manipulated as GDP.

It does not give the false pretense of improvement because of government spending. Government spending does not produce profit.

What the number does reflect is after all is said and done is what have businesses earned that they get to keep from all of these efforts.   This is where the real motivation to grow, hire and expand your business originates from.

I’ve taken the data from the BEA (which anyone has access to) and created a spreadsheet with both 3 and five year rolling averages of the AGR(Annualized Growth Rates) for business profits after taxes.  This data is so simple to comprehend that I would even bet that you can see without highlighting it the last three recessions that we have had.  You can also see clearly when we exited those recessions.

And, if you look at where we are today, you understand what is about to occur.  Which brings us back to the Federal Reserve.  If you look at the chart carefully you can see that each time we were in a recession( and we admitted it), the Fed cut rates, which has the effect of giving businesses a boost to profits.

This time, it is going to be very different.  The Fed has no room to cut rates.  We are near zero already.  Business profits year over year have plummeted, and the Federal Reserve continues to tell us things are getting better.  Read their latest comments here:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/272962361/FOMC-July-Statement-Blueline

Do you think they are clued in?   I do not think so.  I think if they were, they would know that they are on the cusp of a major crisis.

There are a few more things I’d like to point out here.  The 7.5% line is the approximate level at which year over year profits need to rise in order to stimulate real economic growth.  Anything less and we contract, right-sizing the economy until we begin to grow again.   We have a tendency to always use a baseline of zero as the indicator that things are or are not improving.  This is not the baseline to use in most cases.

Three and Five year AGR for Business Profits After Taxes

Three and Five year AGR for Business Profits After Taxes

This data reflects the most recent data available (Four quarters ending 1st quarter 2015)  Business profits after taxes also represent all businesses across the US from mom and pop down the street to Apple and Amazon.

Were you to accept what I have written, and you agree that businesses do go in business to earn profits, and the goal is indeed higher profits year after year, then what needs to be done for a strong, healthy economy because rather clear.

1)  Create an environment for businesses where the regulatory and fiscal burdens are reduced-not increased- for all businesses.

2)  If new legislation is passed that reduces a company’s bottom line, do so knowing that it will indeed have a negative effect on both business expansion and job creation.  So make damn sure that the reason why you are doing it is worth it.

3) The longer business profits after taxes increase and stay above the 7.5% line, the stronger the recovery.  So it is in our best interest to try to promote that outcome rather than detract from it.  Too often governments see that improvement and decide that they can take some of those dollars with no ill effect.  They are wrong.

If you see the chart as I see it, then you will see what is coming.  Ask yourself what will accelerate profit growth for businesses over the next 1-3 years?  What is the catalyst?  And if the Fed cannot cut rates, how long will this next down turn last?

I encourage you to be prepared.  Yes the markets are near all time highs.  But do not be fooled.  Total dollars of profit by the Dow 30 companies are on track to drop more than 9% year over year.  Hard to spin that as a healthy and growing economy.  The smoke and mirrors are being supplied by-yep you guessed it- The Federal Reserve.  The low rates are fueling record share buybacks, increasing per share earnings and therefore share prices.  I believe that you will agree that this is not a positive chart.

Dow 30 Profits Analysis 20150717

The solution to what ails us is clear.  Government needs to reduce the burden they are generating for businesses, so that if the businesses can meet the market needs of customers, they have the potential for higher profits-not less.

Only then we will see the US economy have an opportunity to restore it’s economic engine to more than idle speed.

These are my opinions.  I would love to hear yours.  Please post or comment or email me any questions.

EJ

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