Category Archives: employment

It’s All About Consequences

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We have been thrown into a world that is going under. And suddenly it strikes me what all of the issues we face have in common: Consequences.

Freedom is inevitably tied to consequences. Decisions are tied to consequences. Choices are tied to consequences. And what we see today is that everyone wants freedom, make decisions and choose what they want without consequences.

But the consequences are not going away.

You cannot take away the weapons from law-abiding citizens and not suffer the consequences of thugs and thieves exploiting this opportunity.

You cannot defund the police and then be shocked when the consequence is more assault and criminal activity.

You cannot cheapen life by pushing abortion for free and at any time and not suffer the consequence of a lack of respect for life.

You cannot choose to change your gender when born a male and then compete against females without consequences. The other female athletes will suffer the consequences from your decision.

You cannot choose to halt energy production and not suffer the consequences of higher fuel prices and shortages.

You cannot choose to have all of your drugs produced outside of your nation and then suffer the consequences when that nation invades Taiwan(coming soon).

You cannot tell automakers that they must build vehicles that achieve an insane MPG average and not suffer the consequences of a sudden drop in demand as the vehicles underperform.

You cannot print money, borrow money and run the debt up to astronomical levels and nut suffer the consequences when rates rise and the purchasing power of your currency collapses.

The consequences are coming. They will demand tough choices are made. And if you elected individuals based on their liberalism, skin color or sex, there will be consequences for not electing the most qualified and fit individuals for those positions.

You should be prepared to suffer the consequences.

Every choice has consequences. So think before you choose. Or suffer the consequences for the poor choices.

This Is How Lies Work

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Reporting Altered Numbers to Sway Public Opinion

On February 4th, 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Non-Farm Payroll number, and it was a surprise to the financial markets, exceeding everyone’s expectations.

The following week, despite dozens of pundits such as myself, the jobs number as being great. Unfortunately, the number which was reported is altered using what the BLS calls a “seasonal adjustment”. Using this seasonal adjustment, we were told that the US Economy added 467,000 jobs, despite the effects of Omicron.

Here are just a few of the headlines that you will find when searching for this report:

Surprisingly strong jobs report: America adds 467,000 positions in January

U.S jobs report shows substantial growth

Latest jobs report shows positive development after pandemic slump

And yet the real number of jobs is so far from what has been reported that it should be considered an outright lie.

Seasonal Adjustments

The magic of “seasonal adjustments” has taken a real negative number and turned it into something positive for the media to report. Just how much magic?

The real jobs number was a loss of 2,824,000 jobs. The US economy lost nearly three million jobs in January 2022 and yet the headlines are entirely different.

In January 2022, the US had 147,525,000 people working. That is -2,824,000 from the previous month.

You are being manipulated.

Even the term “seasonal adjustment” is a flat out lie. If they were, you should be able to expect that the same seasonal factors would apply to both January AND February as they are the same season.

Wrong.

Each month is adjusted in a different manner and in a way that no one knows what that adjustment will be.

And it changes from year to year.

What’s the objective?

These seasonal adjustments keep the real truth from the American people. But businesses cannot use that number to plan for expanding their business for it is wrong and misleading.

Too much emphasis has been placed on the monthly release of the NFP Payroll number in the first place. And now that the lie of jobs gains for January has been repeated to the Nth degree and everyone seems to accept it as real and positive, it is simply a lie.

Why not just tell the truth?

Seasonally Adjusted Data: Does It Make The Data More Useful?

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The Data You Rely On Might As Well Be Picked From A Cloud

Employment Numbers Are A Driving Market Statistic

Twelve times a year the financial markets sit on the edge of their seats waiting for the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data. Stock prices can soar or sink, politicians can claim success or suffer negative headlines and in theory, businesses just might alter future business plans based on what they are seeing.

Earlier this month I asked if we live in a seasonally adjusted world:

https://ejmoosa.com/do-you-function-in-a-seasonally-adjusted-world/

What other aspects of our life are seasonally adjusted when we are given the data? Not many if any at all. You would not shop for a vehicle using seasonally adjusted pricing. Nor would you dress properly for winter with a seasonally adjusted forecast.

Magnitude of the Adjustments

Watching Fox Business News or CNBC and watching the guests discuss their estimates for the Non-Farm Payroll number, never did I imagine the magnitude of the adjustments being made. For example, if the estimates ranged from 175k to 250k, I thought the Seasonal adjustment might be 40-50,000. Not the magnitude I found. Let’s have a look:(remember that the Seasonally adjusted data released is the real number plus( or minus) the numbers for the month listed below):

Jan:  3,050,000

Feb:  (691,636)

March: (603,545)

April: (853,545)

May: (593,929)

June: (326,364)

July: 1,271,000

August: (156,700)

Sept.: (378,300)

October: (780,300)

Nov: (277,400)

Dec: 347,300

Seasonal Adjustments Leave False Impressions

Looking at just how large the adjustments are for each month is puzzling. Take a look at the average January adjustment listed :3,050,000. In reality, the economy could actually shrink by 2,000,000 jobs and the BLS will report that we added 1,050,000 jobs for the month of January. Does that make sense to you?

It makes no sense to be because what is reported and what is actually happening is not the same.

How do businesses make solid decisions on what is happening and what they should be doing to take advantage of the data if the data does not reflect the real world?

Is the American public too stupid to understand that lots of jobs are lost in January as the temporary Christmas jobs are terminated? Or do the seasonal adjustments mislead the Public because it is so easy to seasonally adjust giving people the perception of a more level and consistent economic environment?

What’s the Solution?

Because of the disconnect between Seasonally Adjusted Data and reality, I suggest we reduce the reliance on such misleading data. And to dump your investments in one sector and buy in another because of a blockbuster jobs number that is more a work of fiction than fact is likely a mistake.

But those that are profiting from this are those that make money when you buy and sell. They like this volatility created by the data because it causes knee-jerk reactions across the financial spectrum.

An obviously fictionalized number depicting economic activity that is anything but accurate is no way to manage your portfolio.

And that is the Naked Truth.