It’s All About Consequences

We have been thrown into a world that is going under. And suddenly it strikes me what all of the issues we face have in common: Consequences.

Freedom is inevitably tied to consequences. Decisions are tied to consequences. Choices are tied to consequences. And what we see today is that everyone wants freedom, make decisions and choose what they want without consequences.

But the consequences are not going away.

You cannot take away the weapons from law-abiding citizens and not suffer the consequences of thugs and thieves exploiting this opportunity.

You cannot defund the police and then be shocked when the consequence is more assault and criminal activity.

You cannot cheapen life by pushing abortion for free and at any time and not suffer the consequence of a lack of respect for life.

You cannot choose to change your gender when born a male and then compete against females without consequences. The other female athletes will suffer the consequences from your decision.

You cannot choose to halt energy production and not suffer the consequences of higher fuel prices and shortages.

You cannot choose to have all of your drugs produced outside of your nation and then suffer the consequences when that nation invades Taiwan(coming soon).

You cannot tell automakers that they must build vehicles that achieve an insane MPG average and not suffer the consequences of a sudden drop in demand as the vehicles underperform.

You cannot print money, borrow money and run the debt up to astronomical levels and nut suffer the consequences when rates rise and the purchasing power of your currency collapses.

The consequences are coming. They will demand tough choices are made. And if you elected individuals based on their liberalism, skin color or sex, there will be consequences for not electing the most qualified and fit individuals for those positions.

You should be prepared to suffer the consequences.

Every choice has consequences. So think before you choose. Or suffer the consequences for the poor choices.

Don’t Suspend The Fuel Taxes!!!

Tax Games Hide The Impact Of Poor Government Decisions

Both the United States and the state of Georgia are moving rapidly to suspend fuel taxes to negate the impact of high fuel costs in the US. The reason for these high prices are poor decisions by President Joe Biden and the Federal Government as they have tried to eliminate Internal Combustion Engines in the US.

Biden’s failure to keep America energy independent needs to be addressed. Reducing the impact of his failures, even temporarily, is just a feel-good effort. As always, government officials feel they have to do something, even if it does not really do anything. Often it makes matters worse. The high prices should be a constant reminder that elections have consequences.

But the costs of driving on roads that will need repairs as well as the construction of new roads will still need to happen. Revenue for those projects will have to be funded. And if they are not funded, then it will just continue to add to the debt.

Paying For What You Use

We should be paying for what we use. We need to understand there is a direct cost for what we use. Masking the costs by eliminating the fuel taxes, and then paying for highways from other resources reduces the transparency of the costs of government in the US.

Leave the taxes in place as a frequent reminder to all Americans that there is a cost to what government does. Americans need to be screaming about the pain at the pump. Temporary tax reductions does not do anything to improve the supply of fuel in the future.

This Is How Lies Work

Reporting Altered Numbers to Sway Public Opinion

On February 4th, 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Non-Farm Payroll number, and it was a surprise to the financial markets, exceeding everyone’s expectations.

The following week, despite dozens of pundits such as myself, the jobs number as being great. Unfortunately, the number which was reported is altered using what the BLS calls a “seasonal adjustment”. Using this seasonal adjustment, we were told that the US Economy added 467,000 jobs, despite the effects of Omicron.

Here are just a few of the headlines that you will find when searching for this report:

Surprisingly strong jobs report: America adds 467,000 positions in January

U.S jobs report shows substantial growth

Latest jobs report shows positive development after pandemic slump

And yet the real number of jobs is so far from what has been reported that it should be considered an outright lie.

Seasonal Adjustments

The magic of “seasonal adjustments” has taken a real negative number and turned it into something positive for the media to report. Just how much magic?

The real jobs number was a loss of 2,824,000 jobs. The US economy lost nearly three million jobs in January 2022 and yet the headlines are entirely different.

In January 2022, the US had 147,525,000 people working. That is -2,824,000 from the previous month.

You are being manipulated.

Even the term “seasonal adjustment” is a flat out lie. If they were, you should be able to expect that the same seasonal factors would apply to both January AND February as they are the same season.

Wrong.

Each month is adjusted in a different manner and in a way that no one knows what that adjustment will be.

And it changes from year to year.

What’s the objective?

These seasonal adjustments keep the real truth from the American people. But businesses cannot use that number to plan for expanding their business for it is wrong and misleading.

Too much emphasis has been placed on the monthly release of the NFP Payroll number in the first place. And now that the lie of jobs gains for January has been repeated to the Nth degree and everyone seems to accept it as real and positive, it is simply a lie.

Why not just tell the truth?

Seasonally Adjusted Data: Does It Make The Data More Useful?

The Data You Rely On Might As Well Be Picked From A Cloud

Employment Numbers Are A Driving Market Statistic

Twelve times a year the financial markets sit on the edge of their seats waiting for the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data. Stock prices can soar or sink, politicians can claim success or suffer negative headlines and in theory, businesses just might alter future business plans based on what they are seeing.

Earlier this month I asked if we live in a seasonally adjusted world:

https://ejmoosa.com/do-you-function-in-a-seasonally-adjusted-world/

What other aspects of our life are seasonally adjusted when we are given the data? Not many if any at all. You would not shop for a vehicle using seasonally adjusted pricing. Nor would you dress properly for winter with a seasonally adjusted forecast.

Magnitude of the Adjustments

Watching Fox Business News or CNBC and watching the guests discuss their estimates for the Non-Farm Payroll number, never did I imagine the magnitude of the adjustments being made. For example, if the estimates ranged from 175k to 250k, I thought the Seasonal adjustment might be 40-50,000. Not the magnitude I found. Let’s have a look:(remember that the Seasonally adjusted data released is the real number plus( or minus) the numbers for the month listed below):

Jan:  3,050,000

Feb:  (691,636)

March: (603,545)

April: (853,545)

May: (593,929)

June: (326,364)

July: 1,271,000

August: (156,700)

Sept.: (378,300)

October: (780,300)

Nov: (277,400)

Dec: 347,300

Seasonal Adjustments Leave False Impressions

Looking at just how large the adjustments are for each month is puzzling. Take a look at the average January adjustment listed :3,050,000. In reality, the economy could actually shrink by 2,000,000 jobs and the BLS will report that we added 1,050,000 jobs for the month of January. Does that make sense to you?

It makes no sense to be because what is reported and what is actually happening is not the same.

How do businesses make solid decisions on what is happening and what they should be doing to take advantage of the data if the data does not reflect the real world?

Is the American public too stupid to understand that lots of jobs are lost in January as the temporary Christmas jobs are terminated? Or do the seasonal adjustments mislead the Public because it is so easy to seasonally adjust giving people the perception of a more level and consistent economic environment?

What’s the Solution?

Because of the disconnect between Seasonally Adjusted Data and reality, I suggest we reduce the reliance on such misleading data. And to dump your investments in one sector and buy in another because of a blockbuster jobs number that is more a work of fiction than fact is likely a mistake.

But those that are profiting from this are those that make money when you buy and sell. They like this volatility created by the data because it causes knee-jerk reactions across the financial spectrum.

An obviously fictionalized number depicting economic activity that is anything but accurate is no way to manage your portfolio.

And that is the Naked Truth.

Inflation is Rising and Packaging is Shrinking

The Double Whammy of Inflation and Shrinkflation Are Just Getting Started

In a steep acceleration for prices where many people live, FRED is gracious enough to show us the rate of inflation for June 2021 along with a chart dating back well before 1970.

Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2021/07/15/inflation-expectations-the-phillips-curve-and-the-feds-dual-mandate?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=202108%20Research%20Newsletter&utm_content=202108%20Research%20Newsletter+CID_921402a9d24e9c41b5beabca068bd6cc&utm_source=Research%20newsletter&utm_term=Page%20One%20Economics%20essay

Ironies

Ironically, the story linked above justifies higher inflation than zero to prevent deflation(prices falling) yet if you look at the chart image, deflation has rarely been an issue over the last fifty years(2010).

Shrinkflation: What You Think You See May Not Be What You Get

Pictured below are two Tillamook Ice Cream containers. The product on the store shelves offered both containers for the same price: $5.99. That translates to an increase of 14.2% in price. Because the containers shrank and the prices are the same we call this Shrinkflation. And it stinks.

It stinks because unless you look carefully you might not notice the differences.

Shrinkflation: Same Price but a smaller Container. At least it has the same great taste, right?

Have you looked closely at your shredded cheeses lately? Choose carefully. While many are still 8 ounces(Two Cups) more and more are down to 7 ounces (or less).

Packages across the board are shrinking and this hides the real inflation we are seeing every day as they hold prices the same but you get less.

Hiding the inflation does all consumers a disservice. If the inflation is hidden from us, then we as consumers are not getting a clear perception of what our currency can and cannot buy.

Your dollars are losing their purchasing power. And at 5% or higher inflation, they will be losing that purchasing power faster than anyone has witnessed since the 1980s.

Unless you are getting salary increases to keep up with inflation, you and your family are going to be falling behind economically.

“Adjusted for inflation, hourly compensation fell 2.7 percent in the second quarter, data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the nonfarm business sector showed Tuesday.” Source: Breitbart

Conclusion:

Choosing a rate of inflation at 2% or higher and calling your currency stable is simply false. Sooner or later the flames of inflation will jump the perceived control of the Fed and burh through the economy creating havoc and harm.

The US Dollar needs to be tied to a stable form of money such as gold, and interest rates need to be allowed to rise and fall as supply and demand dictate.

The damage we are doing to our economic well being will not be reversed any time soon and the cures for the damage are likely to accelerate the damage as we have seen in years past.

Do You Function In A Seasonally Adjusted World?

Seasonally Adjusted Data: Does it Help?

Last Friday (August 6,2021) the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their preliminary jobs data for July and it was a doozy. The BLS reported that 943,000 jobs were added to the economy in July. 2021.

Sounds pretty impressive right? Too good to be true? Well, it really is too good to be true. Worse, it’s a lie.

Work in The Real Economy

In the real world where people get up and go to work and get a check for their labors is not seasonally adjusted. Fortunately, the BLS also shares that data(but no one else seems to notice it). Without the seasonal adjustments, the economy lost 133,000 jobs in July.

Let me repeat that: There were 133,000 fewer jobs earning pay in July than in June.

Seasonal Adjustments

Trying to think of what other aspects of our lives have seasonal adjustments I simply could not come up with any. We have seen that gasoline prices tend to rise in the summer and fall towards winter, but I’ve yet to hear any seasonal adjustments applied to the gas price to make these changes seem more palatable for us.

How Much Is This Seasonal Adjustment?

Non-Farm Payroll For July
NSASAAdjustment
2016-9733711344
2017-11032281331
2018-11641491313
2019-10581931251
202060617261120
2021-1339431076
Comparison of Job Numbers Adjustment 2016-2021

Million Plus Jobs Added Every July

As you can see in the table above, the BLS adds more than 1 million jobs every July. The jobs must be taken away during other months when we actually have created jobs. Does this lead to better decisions made by those that use this data? It’s hard for me to see how that is possible when the whole objective is meant to gauge the health of the US economy.

In our situation for July, we would have to lose more than 1 million jobs in July to even get close to showing no job growth. I find that simply stunning. Even in a terribly July, we’d still find solace that we were still adding jobs to the economy with the Seasonally Adjusted NFP (although we’d be lying to ourselves).

Using Unadjusted Numbers Paints a Different Picture

Would you have a different picture of the economy if we used the real data? Let’s look at this potential headline if we used the real data:

“July NFP Loses 133,000 Jobs Despite Low Interest Rates and States Re-Opening”

I think it speaks for itself. Don’t you? Somewhere, George Orwell is smiling knowing that he was right.

Corporate Profit Growth Continues to Sink

Corporate profit growth is an excellent indicator of the health of an economy. After all, the reason one is in business is to generally grow profits.

As I have written in years past Know Profit No Growth (No Profits No Growth)

For the 10 years ending the first quarter of 2021, profit growth has fallen to 3.6% annually. Compare that to the ten years ending the first quarter of 2011 and you see just how poor we are doing: 10%.

Think about that. With all of the Fed easing, corporate tax cuts, ultra low interest rates and government giving out money, we have 1/3 of the growth of the previous decade.

So is the Fed keeping us afloat, or are they the cause of what ails us. I know what I believe. Below is an image of the rate of profit growth annually for the ten years ending in the year listed (first quarter each year). And for kicks, I’ve included the numbers of what the Fed balance sheet was along the way.

Slow Motion Economic Disaster is Accelerating

If You Blame Covid-19, Then Think Again

At some point, one has to believe the data over the hyperbole, and the facts over the fiction. But the people in the United States have become so short-sighted, it’s likely they could not even tell you where they were last New Year’s Eve without looking at their phone for visual proof, such as photos.

Ask those same people what happened to the “greatest US economy ever” and the responses will center around Covid-19-a flu that has garnered a response like none we have ever seen in the US.

But I believe that they are wrong, and that Covid-19 is being used by both parties for what they will believe can be political gain.

Third Quarter of 2019 the Slowdown Began In Earnest

The data is out there and you can prove it to yourself if you are willing to look. I have.

The third quarter of 2019 saw profit growth per share for the companies in the Value Line financial subscription fall from 15.35% growth to 1.81%. That sort of slowdown is very detrimental to the political party holding the White House.

In fact, it is slow enough that I would state that it would be likely that Trump lose in 2020 unless there was some incredible reversal, which would have needed some sort of catalyst to occur.

Fourth Quarter of 2019 Prior to Covid-19

Comparing the fourth quarter of 2019’s performance to 2018 is even more horrific. Profit growth per share was down 11.98%. Companies, on a per share basis, earned 11.98% less than the previous year.

Yet Trump and Company still kept touting this economy as the greatest ever. On the other hand, i knew we were heading towards a recession. Companies do not just stop generating profits.

Along Comes Covid-19

For years I have demonstrated how easy it is to forecast the Presidential Race by looking at just one number. Corporate profits after taxes has accurately predicted the outcome for every election since 1972 except for one-1976. And that was the only time we had a non-elected incumbent running for re-election.

I have to believe that both parties are aware of how important the economy is during an election year to the outcome. The question one must ask oneself is that if knowing the economic slowdown that was happening, would either party try to exploit Covid-19?

For instance, would the Republican Party use Covid-19 as cover for an economy that was clearly heading towards a recession, so that the flu would be blamed for the economy’s dismal performance?

And would the Democratic Party use Covid-19 to guarantee that the US Economy was in the tank as voters decide who to elect in November?

The Answer is Clearly Yes

Trump had nothing to lose by blaming Covid-19 for the sudden demise of the US economy. Without it, I feel he was certainly heading towards a loss even if Biden would ultimately be the nominee.

And the Democrats would have no problem sacrificing the economy in order to keep it in the tank as long as possible in order to help their agenda.

But rather than just stick to the economic impact, the Democrats have embraced the greatest move towards socialism we have ever witnessed. And this action just might move the mind of the voters off of the economic issues and onto the socialism issue, which will likely be their undoing.

Make No Mistake The Economy Was Grinding to A Halt

The economic damage that has happened and continues to happen all around us cannot be underestimated. It s worsening day by day.

Covid-19 will be the scapegoat for all of it. Yet I will know that Covid-19 was a political flu.

And the United States will NEVER be the same again.

Was it worth it?

Health Crisis or Math Crisis?

As we watch events unfold and slowly but truly we see the truth coming out about the data, analysis, and forecasting models used to shut us down, it seems that all of this could be avoided with better math and analytical skills across the board.


And while we are only local peons(no offense to anyone), how can we drive the conversation forward that Math does matter?  That proper analysis does matter?  That the “experts” are not necessarily experts?


It appears that much of the modeling used for not only traffic, but the Congressional Budget Office, epidemic forecasting, economic forecasting, global warming and more, is static, for starters.  It needs to be dynamic forecasting.


Beyond that, the baseline assumptions of the “experts” are just wrong.  And it is costing everyone across the nation this time.


I can already hear some saying “What difference does it make?  We were trying to save lives.”

Emergencies were declared

Educations were put on hold

Jobs were lost.

Homes were lost.

Constitutions at the state and national level were violated.

Suicides rose.

Drug and alcohol abuse went up.

Domestic violence increased.

What difference does it make? It’s a matter of life and death.

Most importantly, while this is the first time this has occurred it will not be the last time.  And the next time, you can anticipate that governors act faster with less information than they did this time.  All for your own good.

These decisions were not based individually by all fifty governors in the US either. They instead were based on a few points of failure, namely the CDC and whomever Trump has chosen to listen to on this issue. Can we afford such single points of failure for a nation of more than 340 million residents?

Math matters. Proper analysis matters.

And emotional responses can kill people, have unintended consequences and cause mor harm than good.

Often we hear that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Or that we are doing this for the greater good.

Unfortunately, we seem to have done this for the few at the expense of the many. At what cost?

Government cannot end death. No matter how much is spent or what is sacrificed.

But you have seen what government is willing to do without solid statistical analysis.

It will take away your rights.

It will decide what is essential and not essential for you.

It will cite you and fine you for not following their ill conceived demands.

It will turn your neighbors into agents of the state and have them tell on you if you do not follow their guidelines.

With all of the things we see that can and will happen in a Constitutional Republic, just imagine what happens if the wrong charismatic leader is elected.

Think about that.

Georgia’s Anemic Job Growth

Southeastern Job Growth
2019 JobsTotal Jobs% Growth
Florida21200091040002.33%
Alabama4570021033002.17%
North Carolina9390045936002.04%
Tennessee4920031365001.57%
Georgia6670046537001.43%
South Carolina2720021937001.24%

While Georgia may have the second largest number of jobs relative to it’s neighboring states, the rate of job growth has Georgia only beating South Carolina.

As our tax burdens continue to increase in Georgia, and we work to attract more and more bodies to Georgia, we need to ask ourselves if we have are already being taxed at a level that is slowing business development.

Or we can just keep increasing the tax burden and hope for a better tomorrow.