Removing the manipulated seasonal adjustments will give you a better sense of what the CPI is doing without all the shenanigans. Today we will look at the data just released.
CPI For the 12 Months Ending 3/2024
The CPI for the 12 months ending 3/2024 is 3.48%. This is down from 12 months ago which came in at 4.94%.
It is also down from 24 months ago, which came in at 8.54%
The CPI is also down from the 12 months ending September 2023 of 3.70%(where we were six months ago).
Over the Last Five Years
While down from the 12 months ending 3/2023, the rolling 12-month CPI increased from February 2024 by 0.33%, from 3.15% to 3.48%.
The CPI peaked at 8.58% in May 2022 and has fallen more than 5% since the peak.
The lowest CPI for a 12-month period was 0.12% for the 12 months ending May 2020, which occurred during the COVID shutdown..
The Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) has a stated objective of 2% for inflation.
Rolling 12 Month CPI
To review the data directly from the BLS, you can go to their site and download the data directly.
At some point, one has to believe the data over the hyperbole, and the facts over the fiction. But the people in the United States have become so short-sighted, it’s likely they could not even tell you where they were last New Year’s Eve without looking at their phone for visual proof, such as photos.
Ask those same people what happened to the “greatest US economy ever” and the responses will center around Covid-19-a flu that has garnered a response like none we have ever seen in the US.
But I believe that they are wrong, and that Covid-19 is being used by both parties for what they will believe can be political gain.
Third Quarter of 2019 the Slowdown Began In Earnest
The data is out there and you can prove it to yourself if you are willing to look. I have.
The third quarter of 2019 saw profit growth per share for the companies in the Value Line financial subscription fall from 15.35% growth to 1.81%. That sort of slowdown is very detrimental to the political party holding the White House.
In fact, it is slow enough that I would state that it would be likely that Trump lose in 2020 unless there was some incredible reversal, which would have needed some sort of catalyst to occur.
Fourth Quarter of 2019 Prior to Covid-19
Comparing the fourth quarter of 2019’s performance to 2018 is even more horrific. Profit growth per share was down 11.98%. Companies, on a per share basis, earned 11.98% less than the previous year.
Yet Trump and Company still kept touting this economy as the greatest ever. On the other hand, i knew we were heading towards a recession. Companies do not just stop generating profits.
Along Comes Covid-19
For years I have demonstrated how easy it is to forecast the Presidential Race by looking at just one number. Corporate profits after taxes has accurately predicted the outcome for every election since 1972 except for one-1976. And that was the only time we had a non-elected incumbent running for re-election.
I have to believe that both parties are aware of how important the economy is during an election year to the outcome. The question one must ask oneself is that if knowing the economic slowdown that was happening, would either party try to exploit Covid-19?
For instance, would the Republican Party use Covid-19 as cover for an economy that was clearly heading towards a recession, so that the flu would be blamed for the economy’s dismal performance?
And would the Democratic Party use Covid-19 to guarantee that the US Economy was in the tank as voters decide who to elect in November?
The Answer is Clearly Yes
Trump had nothing to lose by blaming Covid-19 for the sudden demise of the US economy. Without it, I feel he was certainly heading towards a loss even if Biden would ultimately be the nominee.
And the Democrats would have no problem sacrificing the economy in order to keep it in the tank as long as possible in order to help their agenda.
But rather than just stick to the economic impact, the Democrats have embraced the greatest move towards socialism we have ever witnessed. And this action just might move the mind of the voters off of the economic issues and onto the socialism issue, which will likely be their undoing.
Make No Mistake The Economy Was Grinding to A Halt
The economic damage that has happened and continues to happen all around us cannot be underestimated. It s worsening day by day.
Covid-19 will be the scapegoat for all of it. Yet I will know that Covid-19 was a political flu.
And the United States will NEVER be the same again.
As we watch events unfold and slowly but truly we see the truth coming out about the data, analysis, and forecasting models used to shut us down, it seems that all of this could be avoided with better math and analytical skills across the board.
And while we are only local peons(no offense to anyone), how can we drive the conversation forward that Math does matter? That proper analysis does matter? That the “experts” are not necessarily experts?
It appears that much of the modeling used for not only traffic, but the Congressional Budget Office, epidemic forecasting, economic forecasting, global warming and more, is static, for starters. It needs to be dynamic forecasting.
Beyond that, the baseline assumptions of the “experts” are just wrong. And it is costing everyone across the nation this time.
I can already hear some saying “What difference does it make? We were trying to save lives.”
Emergencies were declared
Educations were put on hold
Jobs were lost.
Homes were lost.
Constitutions at the state and national level were violated.
Suicides rose.
Drug and alcohol abuse went up.
Domestic violence increased.
What difference does it make? It’s a matter of life and death.
Most importantly, while this is the first time this has occurred it will not be the last time. And the next time, you can anticipate that governors act faster with less information than they did this time. All for your own good.
These decisions were not based individually by all fifty governors in the US either. They instead were based on a few points of failure, namely the CDC and whomever Trump has chosen to listen to on this issue. Can we afford such single points of failure for a nation of more than 340 million residents?
Math matters. Proper analysis matters.
And emotional responses can kill people, have unintended consequences and cause mor harm than good.
Often we hear that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Or that we are doing this for the greater good.
Unfortunately, we seem to have done this for the few at the expense of the many. At what cost?
Government cannot end death. No matter how much is spent or what is sacrificed.
But you have seen what government is willing to do without solid statistical analysis.
It will take away your rights.
It will decide what is essential and not essential for you.
It will cite you and fine you for not following their ill conceived demands.
It will turn your neighbors into agents of the state and have them tell on you if you do not follow their guidelines.
With all of the things we see that can and will happen in a Constitutional Republic, just imagine what happens if the wrong charismatic leader is elected.
As the Covid19 medical crisis continues, governments continue to send mixed messages.
Governments race to take action building medical facilities to take care of the ill, the majority of them who have NOT followed the guidelines set over the last 2-4 weeks, which were to keep people from getting ill in the first place.
Why are the governments working so hard to develop rules as to what you can do and not do, and then at the very same time taking billions of dollars to be prepared to treat you when those that do not follow the rules get ill?
Maybe some of those quarantined have too much time on their hands.
