The Naked Truth About Beer Prices

Beer Prices have been skyrocketing under President Biden. And no, it isn’t your imagination. Then are accelerating to the upside again. Beer drinkers across the nation are not going to be happy.

In the chart below you will see the beer price index from breweries from the Producer Price Index(PPI) released today.

Source:

Series Id: PCU312120312120
Series Title: PPI industry data for Breweries, not seasonally adjusted
Industry: Breweries
Product: Breweries
Base Date: 198206

Under President Trump, beer prices never had an annual increase as high as just reported for a 12-month period.

And yet, under President Biden, we hit a peak of 6.93% for the 12 months ending January 2023, which fell to 1.25% for the 12 months ending February 2024. Prices are now accelerating again to the upside at 1.84% higher for the 12 months ending April 2024.

When will it end?

The Naked Truth About Labor Force Participation

Labor Force Participation is the % of people working of those who are seeking work. Using the BLS data base tools, you can select criteria and time frames to see trends.

Trump Posts Highest Labor Force Participation During the Last 10 Years

Looking at the Labor Force Participation Rate for those above 25 years old by month, President Trump posted the highest participation rates. A rate of 64.7% was achieved in October and November in 2019.

Currently, we are at 63.7%, a full percentage point below peak employment as a percentage under President Biden. Were Biden to have the same LFP as Trump achieved, we’d have 1.58 million more people employed in the US today.

Conclusion: The US Economic Engine is not as robust as it has been in the past. The Federal Reserve Bank, which is charged with seeking peak employment, is not meeting its stated objective.

The Naked Truth About the April 2024 Non Farm Payroll Report

The US economy added 802K jobs in April, down from April 2023 when 948k jobs were added.

Year to date, the US economy has lost 64k jobs per month, on average.

US employment peaked in November of 2023 at 157.87 million jobs.

Job Growth for the last 12 months ending April 2024 is 1.813%.

In April 2023, job growth for the 12 trailing months was 2.488%.

Summary: Job growth continues to decline in the US.

A Look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers Not Seasonally Adjusted- March 2024

Removing the manipulated seasonal adjustments will give you a better sense of what the CPI is doing without all the shenanigans. Today we will look at the data just released.

CPI For the 12 Months Ending 3/2024

The CPI for the 12 months ending 3/2024 is 3.48%. This is down from 12 months ago which came in at 4.94%.

It is also down from 24 months ago, which came in at 8.54%

The CPI is also down from the 12 months ending September 2023 of 3.70%(where we were six months ago).

Over the Last Five Years

While down from the 12 months ending 3/2023, the rolling 12-month CPI increased from February 2024 by 0.33%, from 3.15% to 3.48%.

The CPI peaked at 8.58% in May 2022 and has fallen more than 5% since the peak.

The lowest CPI for a 12-month period was 0.12% for the 12 months ending May 2020, which occurred during the COVID shutdown..

The Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) has a stated objective of 2% for inflation.

Rolling 12 Month CPI

To review the data directly from the BLS, you can go to their site and download the data directly.

https://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm#prices

A Letter to White County Commisioners on Short-term Rentals

White County Chairman and Commissioners:

I attended last evening’s meeting hoping to find some answers to my questions about your proposed changes to our Municipal Code.

I learned that there are many upset residents, some upset investors, and more questions than answers at this point.

One of the things that bothers me is not understanding why you are granting certain owners of residential properties the right to turn them into rental businesses.

No one purchases property that is not encumbered in some way.  We all do.  The zoning process has been used to grant some property owners a new right that they did not have legally until the White County Commission votes to give it to them.  That is a new right to run a for-profit short-term rental business on property that is for residential purposes.  

Some owners may state that they have the right to do what they want with their property, but it simply isn’t true.  It hasn’t been true for many decades.

Section 16-200 of the proposed changes states a purpose.  In that paragraph, it includes  “…while minimizing the negative, secondary effects on surrounding properties.”  

Are you going to vote for changes that you acknowledge will have negative, secondary effects on your residents?  If so, you are taking away something we purchased with our property and giving it to another entity.  We lose the residential neighbors and they gain the right to run a commercial business on a residential property.


If you truly believe that we have too many Short-term Rentals, then raise the fees on them so that they are prohibitively expensive.  Offer no variances whatsoever on the properties that they are attempting to be put into the program. Low fees and variances enabled too many rentals that should have never been approved.

On the White County website, you have an organizational chart.  The citizens of White County are at the top of that chart.  The majority of residents were quite clear that they want White County to have fewer short-term rentals.  Here we are trying to remove the citizens from the approval process and to make it easier for property owners (who may or may not be residents) to be granted rights on a property that did not exist until White County approved it.  I hope you think about that carefully.

Do the right thing for your citizens and stop granting rights where they do not exist today. If they existed, we would not have to seek permission to do it.

Preserve the quality of life for the residents who chose to live here rather than destroying it so investors can attempt to turn a profit.

Where we live, we can see and hear the changes and development behind us towards Chimney Mountain.  Lots have been cleared, then smoke rises, and in 12 months we see the Zillow listings for homes that have been constructed that are ideal for “short-term rental investments”.  Residing in the neighborhood of Skylake does not protect us from the impact of short-term rentals.   

Neither will these proposed changes.

It’s All About Consequences

We have been thrown into a world that is going under. And suddenly it strikes me what all of the issues we face have in common: Consequences.

Freedom is inevitably tied to consequences. Decisions are tied to consequences. Choices are tied to consequences. And what we see today is that everyone wants freedom, make decisions and choose what they want without consequences.

But the consequences are not going away.

You cannot take away the weapons from law-abiding citizens and not suffer the consequences of thugs and thieves exploiting this opportunity.

You cannot defund the police and then be shocked when the consequence is more assault and criminal activity.

You cannot cheapen life by pushing abortion for free and at any time and not suffer the consequence of a lack of respect for life.

You cannot choose to change your gender when born a male and then compete against females without consequences. The other female athletes will suffer the consequences from your decision.

You cannot choose to halt energy production and not suffer the consequences of higher fuel prices and shortages.

You cannot choose to have all of your drugs produced outside of your nation and then suffer the consequences when that nation invades Taiwan(coming soon).

You cannot tell automakers that they must build vehicles that achieve an insane MPG average and not suffer the consequences of a sudden drop in demand as the vehicles underperform.

You cannot print money, borrow money and run the debt up to astronomical levels and nut suffer the consequences when rates rise and the purchasing power of your currency collapses.

The consequences are coming. They will demand tough choices are made. And if you elected individuals based on their liberalism, skin color or sex, there will be consequences for not electing the most qualified and fit individuals for those positions.

You should be prepared to suffer the consequences.

Every choice has consequences. So think before you choose. Or suffer the consequences for the poor choices.

Don’t Suspend The Fuel Taxes!!!

Tax Games Hide The Impact Of Poor Government Decisions

Both the United States and the state of Georgia are moving rapidly to suspend fuel taxes to negate the impact of high fuel costs in the US. The reason for these high prices are poor decisions by President Joe Biden and the Federal Government as they have tried to eliminate Internal Combustion Engines in the US.

Biden’s failure to keep America energy independent needs to be addressed. Reducing the impact of his failures, even temporarily, is just a feel-good effort. As always, government officials feel they have to do something, even if it does not really do anything. Often it makes matters worse. The high prices should be a constant reminder that elections have consequences.

But the costs of driving on roads that will need repairs as well as the construction of new roads will still need to happen. Revenue for those projects will have to be funded. And if they are not funded, then it will just continue to add to the debt.

Paying For What You Use

We should be paying for what we use. We need to understand there is a direct cost for what we use. Masking the costs by eliminating the fuel taxes, and then paying for highways from other resources reduces the transparency of the costs of government in the US.

Leave the taxes in place as a frequent reminder to all Americans that there is a cost to what government does. Americans need to be screaming about the pain at the pump. Temporary tax reductions does not do anything to improve the supply of fuel in the future.

This Is How Lies Work

Reporting Altered Numbers to Sway Public Opinion

On February 4th, 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Non-Farm Payroll number, and it was a surprise to the financial markets, exceeding everyone’s expectations.

The following week, despite dozens of pundits such as myself, the jobs number as being great. Unfortunately, the number which was reported is altered using what the BLS calls a “seasonal adjustment”. Using this seasonal adjustment, we were told that the US Economy added 467,000 jobs, despite the effects of Omicron.

Here are just a few of the headlines that you will find when searching for this report:

Surprisingly strong jobs report: America adds 467,000 positions in January

U.S jobs report shows substantial growth

Latest jobs report shows positive development after pandemic slump

And yet the real number of jobs is so far from what has been reported that it should be considered an outright lie.

Seasonal Adjustments

The magic of “seasonal adjustments” has taken a real negative number and turned it into something positive for the media to report. Just how much magic?

The real jobs number was a loss of 2,824,000 jobs. The US economy lost nearly three million jobs in January 2022 and yet the headlines are entirely different.

In January 2022, the US had 147,525,000 people working. That is -2,824,000 from the previous month.

You are being manipulated.

Even the term “seasonal adjustment” is a flat out lie. If they were, you should be able to expect that the same seasonal factors would apply to both January AND February as they are the same season.

Wrong.

Each month is adjusted in a different manner and in a way that no one knows what that adjustment will be.

And it changes from year to year.

What’s the objective?

These seasonal adjustments keep the real truth from the American people. But businesses cannot use that number to plan for expanding their business for it is wrong and misleading.

Too much emphasis has been placed on the monthly release of the NFP Payroll number in the first place. And now that the lie of jobs gains for January has been repeated to the Nth degree and everyone seems to accept it as real and positive, it is simply a lie.

Why not just tell the truth?

Bitcoin, Tesla, and Reality

Author’s Note: I do not own Bitcoin or any cryptocurrencies nor do I own an EV. I do own Au, AG, and two diesel vehicles.

Bitcoin: The currency with a limit as to how many can be mined, but effectively no limit on how many times it can be subdivided

Cryptocurrency: Electronic currency that has no limit to the numbers and varieties that can be produced.

Tesla: The first EV to be successfully mass-marketed for the general population.

I’ll be honest. I have BTC fatigue. I’ll add to that Tesla fatigue as well.

It turns out BTC and Tesla have a lot in common. Both provide transportation. BTC for purchasing power and Tesla for people.

But beyond that, they are subject to competition from others. And that competition will continue coming until BTC and Tesla are, for the lack of a better term, has-beens.

Much is made about BTC and the limit to the number of units that will be mined. But does that really matter? Will it make a difference to the market that it will be a “limited” production?

Experience says no. We have had limited editions of all sorts of vehicles in our lives. Where are they today?

For those that like Cryptocurrencies, BTC will be replaced by one with more availability that appeals to the masses. BTC is already being replaced on the fringes of the crypto market.

Tesla is in the same boat. There were waiting lists to acquire a Tesla. Demand is still there. But nearly every automaker in existence when Tesla hit the markets now has EV offerings of their own. And some of these vehicles are arguably much better than a Tesla.

Then there are the new EV companies that appeared to compete as well. More will be coming in the future.

Ironically, the EV market is based on some gross lies. Calling an EV a zero-emissions vehicle is a lie. The production of an EV produces emissions in manufacturing, transport to the customer, and in most cases during the production of the electricity used to charge it.

The Cryptocurrency sector is also based on some falsehoods. It is not leading a green energy revolution. Instead, it is raising the costs of energy for all doing needless computer algorithms. It is also claimed that it is a “store of value”. But if you lose access to your storage for BTC, that value is gone. Not just for you, but anyone. It just no longer exists.

Think about that.

Seasonally Adjusted Data: Does It Make The Data More Useful?

The Data You Rely On Might As Well Be Picked From A Cloud

Employment Numbers Are A Driving Market Statistic

Twelve times a year the financial markets sit on the edge of their seats waiting for the release of the Non-Farm Payroll data. Stock prices can soar or sink, politicians can claim success or suffer negative headlines and in theory, businesses just might alter future business plans based on what they are seeing.

Earlier this month I asked if we live in a seasonally adjusted world:

https://ejmoosa.com/do-you-function-in-a-seasonally-adjusted-world/

What other aspects of our life are seasonally adjusted when we are given the data? Not many if any at all. You would not shop for a vehicle using seasonally adjusted pricing. Nor would you dress properly for winter with a seasonally adjusted forecast.

Magnitude of the Adjustments

Watching Fox Business News or CNBC and watching the guests discuss their estimates for the Non-Farm Payroll number, never did I imagine the magnitude of the adjustments being made. For example, if the estimates ranged from 175k to 250k, I thought the Seasonal adjustment might be 40-50,000. Not the magnitude I found. Let’s have a look:(remember that the Seasonally adjusted data released is the real number plus( or minus) the numbers for the month listed below):

Jan:  3,050,000

Feb:  (691,636)

March: (603,545)

April: (853,545)

May: (593,929)

June: (326,364)

July: 1,271,000

August: (156,700)

Sept.: (378,300)

October: (780,300)

Nov: (277,400)

Dec: 347,300

Seasonal Adjustments Leave False Impressions

Looking at just how large the adjustments are for each month is puzzling. Take a look at the average January adjustment listed :3,050,000. In reality, the economy could actually shrink by 2,000,000 jobs and the BLS will report that we added 1,050,000 jobs for the month of January. Does that make sense to you?

It makes no sense to be because what is reported and what is actually happening is not the same.

How do businesses make solid decisions on what is happening and what they should be doing to take advantage of the data if the data does not reflect the real world?

Is the American public too stupid to understand that lots of jobs are lost in January as the temporary Christmas jobs are terminated? Or do the seasonal adjustments mislead the Public because it is so easy to seasonally adjust giving people the perception of a more level and consistent economic environment?

What’s the Solution?

Because of the disconnect between Seasonally Adjusted Data and reality, I suggest we reduce the reliance on such misleading data. And to dump your investments in one sector and buy in another because of a blockbuster jobs number that is more a work of fiction than fact is likely a mistake.

But those that are profiting from this are those that make money when you buy and sell. They like this volatility created by the data because it causes knee-jerk reactions across the financial spectrum.

An obviously fictionalized number depicting economic activity that is anything but accurate is no way to manage your portfolio.

And that is the Naked Truth.