Conflicts of Interest

As a Libertarian, I understand what it is like to be perceived as being against anything and everything. Those that try to characterize Libertarians in this manner often have a conflict of interest.

There are many conflicts of interest that we are surrounded with each and every day. The best way to address these issues is to be up front and acknowledge that “Yes, here is my conflict of interest, and this is how I will attempt to balance it with the issue”.

Instead, we see the denial of the conflict of interest through carefully worded statements. Statements that seem to give the sense that there is no conflict. But that does not eliminate the real conflict that exists. Continue reading

How The Federal Reserve’s Rate Policies Are Out Of Sync With Our Economic Reality

The Federal Reserve is the weakest of the links in the US economy.  Their timing is poor. They operate under two mandates and one works in direct opposition of the other.

Maintaining a stable money supply is one objective.  Full employment is another.  However, the Fed has a goal of 2% inflation and not 0% inflation, which is not stable, but inflationary.  Additionally the Fed includes data in calculations that are not inflation based on monetary policy, but rising and falling prices due to greater or lesser demand.

That leads us to their second objective: full employment.  When we get towards full employment, wages should rise and businesses compete for labor.  But as soon as this were to happen, the Fed will stomp on the brakes. Continue reading

Quantitative Easing and The Impact on Jobs: Disaster Looming Straight Ahead

If you have been following my work for some time, you know that I have expressed belief that there is a strong correlation between Corporate Profit Growth and job growth in the United States.
My research had shown that there was a very high correlation between those two numbers. The higher the profit growth year over year, then the higher the job growth 4-5 quarters later.

Have a look at the following data. We have higher job growth with profit at lower levels? What is wrong with this picture?

Profits Jobs
Sep-10 -29.11% 0.09%
Sep-11 32.94% 1.66%
Sep-12 6.55% 1.48%
Sep-13 11.77% 1.79%
Sep-14 1.10% 2.04%
Sep-15 1.89% 2.05%
Profit Growth % from previous year
Job Growth % 4 quarters ending date shown

At the time I discovered this relationship, the correlation was .91 or so. This would imply that 81% of job growth was related to profit growth. And as I have written and suggested to anyone that would listen, if you wanted more job growth, you enabled more profit growth in the business sector. Using the same time frames as before, I watched the correlation fall from .81 to .57, suggesting that only 32% of job growth was now due to profit growth. Disappointing to me to be sure, but it was still a positive correlation Continue reading

Rand Paul’s Falling Behind-Is There Anything That Can Be Done?

rand paulRand Paul faces a series of major decisions. He has lost the edge he came into office with. His positions are dulling as he listens to advisors that tell him he needs to be more inclusive. WRONG WRONG WRONG.

Paul needs to be so clear on his positions that anyone(and I mean anyone friend or foe) knows where he stands and what his reply would be.

Rand has made some critical mistakes along the way. But he is still young. Let’s see if he can learn from them and correct his course.

Here are three things I suggest he do immediately:
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1) Apologize for supporting McConnell

Let’s face it. This was a mistake. Rand showed us that his loyalties were to the party and a fellow Kentuckian, even if that Kentuckian was wrong for America. And since then we have paid a heavy price for this choice. Rand could have had another ally in the Senate had he not supported McConnell.

2) Take a hard line on the border and illegal immigrants. Libertarians support an open border ONLY if crossing it does not come with food stamps, welfare, housing and medicare. Crossing the border into the US should not mean you get all the perks of citizenship.

Donald Trump has shown clearly that this is the single biggest issue we all have at this moment. We have been told for decades that something would be done. It hasn’t. The needs of law-abiding citizens are secondary to the wants of illegal aliens. And we are being bullied from all directions that we must accept illegals. We do not. If your native country sucks, I am sorry. But it’s NOT my problem.

3) Start attacking the Fed. The Fed has painted themselves into a corner. We are screwed. If you cannot make the most of this opportunity, you never will.

We are on the cusp of a major economic event. The Fed is at the root of the problem. It’s going to be hard. But we must remove our economic outcome away from the idea that printing more money, and borrowing future demand to shore up businesses today is the answer. Our future is dismal if we do not act soon. It may very well be too late. But Paul can boost his standing by continuing to highlight the mistakes the Federal Reserve is making(and who is getting rich on their coattails).
End the Fed

Rand has decide where he stands if he wants us to stand with him. As of now, I think he is trying to play both sides. I am not sure where he stands.

That will be a fatal mistake to his campaign. There are 15 flavors of vanilla being offered by the Republican slate. And then there’s Trump. Rand needs to show what his true flavor is.

Paul has potential. He has shown courage. But he has faltered over the last twelve months. I suggest he pause and look around. Are those advising him of what he needs to do palying inside the box? Or are they thinking outside the box?

This game will be won outside the box. So why continue to play inside the box?
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Introducing the Fulton County Residential Authority( Or Why We Should Not have the Fulton County Development Authority)

I’d like to propose (for illustration only) a new agency for Fulton County.  We will call it the Fulton County Residential Authority(FCRA).  This authority will do for residents what the Fulton County Development Authority(FCDA) does for businesses.

Fulton County needs to attract some of the best and brightest residents out there who are looking for new homes.  There are many attractive locations, and it would be in Fulton County’s own best interest to attract them here.

We can attract them by helping them get the financing they need for their homes.  We will help them to float bonds for their residences, and offer tax incentives for those that are willing to purchase those bonds.

thankyouCurrent residents that are already in their homes?

We will offer you a hearty thank you. Thank you for not questioning our actions.[read more=”Read more” less=”Read less”]

Thank you for continuing to pay the full taxes on your property.

Thank you Thank you Thank you.   (If you are one of our valued residents come in and chat-we may be able to work a favorable deal for you as well)

We will also offer through the FCRA property tax breaks for you that will lower your cost of residency during your first ten years.  We will lower your property taxes by 50%, and then slowly increase your taxes over the years.  And if needed to keep you happy, we will work with you to help lower those taxes in other ways as well.  We are here for you.

thankyouCurrent residents that are already in their homes, and paying the full tax rates without any abatements-once again we offer you a hearty thank you!

 

 

 

Once a month, the FCRA will get together and look over the list of those who have applied for an inducement to have their residence within Fulton County.  We will be evaluating you based on what you say will be the benefits of having you here.

Are you a high income earner and will be spending dollars?  There’s a plus.

Going to be hiring a maid and lawn care and nannies?  Babies on the way? Greater purchases of goods and job creation is always a plus.

Building a new home versus a resale?  Even better. Raw materials purchased.  Building permits and inspections.   More jobs.

So we invite you to apply.  Make your case.  Help make Fulton County a better place for all.  Your FCRA will make the right choices picking the right new residents for Fulton County.

Crying-baby-cartoon_0For those current residents who will be living besides our beneficiaries of the FCRA, do not be concerned, upset, or feel cheated.  These new residents will add value.  They are bringing in new construction projects, jobs, and other intangibles.

We assure you this will not lead to overbuilding or speculation in our markets.  Do not look at these new residents as getting a tax break at your expense.  Look at it as incremental revenue that we will spend on behalf of everyone.

Let’s create the FCRA and do for residents what we are doing so well for our business community!

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Now that you have a sense of how the Fulton County Residential Authority might work, you can see why I would oppose the Fulton County Development Authority.

It picks winners actively and losers passively.  Current businesses pay more taxes than those that make deals with the FCDA.

It encourages speculation and overbuilding.

My list is long as to why I think the FCDA is a bad idea.  Despite the fact that “everyone has or wants a development authority”, it artificially stimulates demand for commercial space.  It also comes with a price: Property Tax Abatements.

Treat everyone and every business equally.  If the idea is accepted that lower taxes stimulate(as the FCDA can affirm by why it does what it does), then lower taxes across the board for EVERYONE.

Lower business taxes for everyone.  It’s the only equitable way to do business.

If you create a business environment that benefits ALL participants then that is the single best thing you can do.

Do not penalize current businesses by giving newcomers better deals and tax breaks.

It’s just that simple.

If you create that sort of environment for your businesses, you will not have to “induce” them to be in your community.  Instead, they will beat a path to your community, and everyone will benefit.

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Heading Closer and Closer to the Recessionary Wall

Much of the financial information we get on a daily basis tends to shape our perspectives of how the economy is doing.  Unfortunately, much of that data tends to be a first pass WAG (wild-assed guess), which has often proven to be more wrong than right.

Take the the numbers for job creation, which are released monthly by the BLS, for example.  They are definitely NOT rooted in reality.  But what happens is when the revision for a month comes out, the attention is focused squarely on the new WAG for the most recent month.

Other economic numbers of varying degrees of significance experience similar releases, and are also, more or less WAGs.

I have, over the course of the last 10 years, been working on a different approach, although it lags the headline grabbing urgency of a July number for job creation, for instance.  No, instead, my numbers crawl along slowly, three to four months behind.  But they are clearly superior.  I do not give you false hope with WAGS.  I do not sound false alarms with WAGS.  I also do not have to provide seasonal adjustments or other economic tricks.  I have no reason to inject bias into the numbers.  They are what they are.

While many economists also love to focus on top line growth, I have been dissuaded from putting too much importance on that line.  Instead, it’s the bottom line growth that drives the US economy forward in the long term.  This line is where the dollars come from for new expansion, new pay increases, new product development: the keys to real growth.

And unfortunately, the news I have to share is not positive.

Per Share Profit Growth

 

Here is a chart depicting the rate of profit growth year over year for the last four quarters on a per share basis for 1625 companies I track.  So, had you owned one share in each of these companies, one year ago and today, you would have seen your earnings grow by 5.27%, down from 8.40% a year ago, and 34.64% four years ago.[read more=”Read more” less=”Read less”]

One must keep in mind that Valueline drops companies that are heading in the wrong direction and add companies that are headed in the right direction.  So this data tends to have a natural bias towards the better businesses overall.

What’s going to be the stimulus to returning businesses to higher profit growth?

I simply cannot come up with any ideas that might be able to do it.  I can tell you what is working to drag profits even lower.

Higher interest rates.

Higher tax rates.

More regulations.

Increases in minimum wages in various locations.

Continued implementation of Obamacare.

So, we are at a junction where things need to get better but can’t.  Where will that send us?  What happens next?

Once the lack of growth in the chart above is acknowledged, the joy of owning stocks will become a fond memory.  Those stellar returns since the last bottom will disappear faster than the vapor from that E-cig your kids are smoking.

This recession will be unlike the last one.  The Federal Reserve cannot cut rates.  Too many businesses have taken on too much debt to buy back shares at their peaks (they should have been selling shares at the peak).  Companies used to be in the business of issuing shares to expand their businesses.  Today?  They borrow dollars to buyback shares to make their earnings per share look good.

Meanwhile the total profits of the Dow 30 will fall by 9% in 2015.  But fear not.  Their per share numbers look better than should.

States with the most issues financially have been able to mask the smell of their stinking liabilities so far.  But that gig is nearly up.  Puerto Rico is a hint of things to come.  Chicago is not far behind.

I suggest you prepare for the downturn which is coming.  Many of us were able to grin and bear the last downturn.

This one…well it’s gonna hurt.

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Economies Of Scale Vs. Scope of Government

One of the greatest mysteries to me is why we see no economies of scale the bigger cities get and the bigger governments get.  And I think that I am on the brink of resolving that mystery for myself finally.

For our example, we will take two municipalities of obviously different size: Johns Creek and Atlanta.  Both have the same state government, operate in the same environmental and economic environments and co-exist 15 miles or so apart.

And without evening providing the numbers that support the statement, we all know that it is much more expensive from a tax perspective to live in Atlanta than Johns Creek.

I have decided to provide the numbers after it was suggested that they were important.

Brief back of the envelope calculations shows that the City of Atlanta spends $1265 per resident while Johns Creek spends $637.  And on property taxes. the City of Atlanta has a millage rate 30% higher than Johns Creek.

As a more or less rational thinker, this has left me puzzled more often than not.  What is it that makes it more expensive per capita to provide services to the public, which seem to defy the concept of Economies of Scale that function flawlessly in other aspects of our life?

And then it hit me.  It’s NOT the economies of scale that are at question.  It’s the scope of government services provided.

At this point I am going to add another city to our conversation.  This one is fictional, but we all have a good understanding of how it is defined: Mayberry.

The city of Mayberry provided the most basic of services for the common good.  Court, jail, police, fire and education.

All the residents were potential beneficiaries of these services.

But when a city gets larger, like Johns Creek has, then more services are provided. Wants seem to morph into needs.   And these services may not benefit all citizens but a sub-section.     At first, it might be that a new service benefits 90% of the public. We tax all for the benefit of those 90%.  And 10% pay for services they never use.

Then the City grows larger.  Soon we add additional services, and then more additional services until the new services aret being used by 10% or less of the population and are being subsidized by the 90% that are not using them.

The larger the city the smaller the beneficiary group as a % of the whole needs to be.

Much to the chagrin of dog lovers, I’ll use the example of dog parks.  (and I love the name of the Chattapoochie Dog Park in Gwinnett so I am not a total grump).  Here’s a service provided by municipalities that only benefits dog owners.  More specifically, it only benefits that sub-segment of dog owners that want to take their dogs to a park to roam around.  If 1 in ten residents in Johns Creek have taken their pooch to the park more than 6 times in a year, I’d be shocked.

Were Johns Creek to get large enough, we’d likely have a different park for small dogs, and big dogs.  Even larger and we would have one for medium sized dogs.

We see the same effect with Arts Centers, Aquatic Centers, Nature Centers (insert the others you know are coming here).  We also see it with other services the City decides that they must provide such as bulk recycling.  The list becomes endless as long as there are funds to start the program.  And they never end. Get a few federal or state dollars to start and it’s a certainty to get started and be with you forever more.

Which brings us back to my original observation.  There are no economies of scale for bigger and bigger cites because the scope of the services these cities provide expand in such a way that there are fewer users as a % of the population, forcing the majority to subsidize them.  By the end the 99% are funding programs for the 1% that use them.

How does one reign in the “service creep” that cities seem to engage in the larger they get?

One answer would be to set a minimal level of actual users that a city expects to see from this service.  Fifty per cent would be a good starting point for discussion’s sake.

Another answer would be to cut the funds flowing into the cities that fund such projects of such a narrow scope.  To do so you will need to be ready to speak up to your local government and say “NO!”.

As a Libertarian, this is exactly why I am for  a smaller government.  Let’s do the things that we need to do for everyone’s benefit, and do them the best we can.

Then we could see economies of scale.  We could lower our taxes, and those with dogs, for instance, could fund their own private dog park with their own dollars.

Otherwise, where does the “Service Creep” end?

That’s my opinion.  I’d love to hear yours.

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Johns Creek: Foolin’ Ourselves

The residents of Johns Creek, Georgia have lots of things going for it.  Excellent housing, many of the best schools in the state for kids, and income levels that surpass nearly every other community.

Those positive attributes, however, have led to a flow of tax dollars into the City’s Coffers that is now doing more harm than good.

Since 2006, the year the city formed, the City has amassed $54,348,545 at the end of the fiscal year 2014, according to the City’s Certified Audited Financial Report.  That represents an increase of almost $7,000,000 per year of revenue over expenses.  With a population of around 80,000, that works out to more than $670 per every man, woman and child.

That’s an astonishing amount of money to be held per capita, and it’s growing.  Last evening, the City Council, under the lead of Mayor Mike Bodker voted to maintain the City’s millage rate at it’s current level, despite the property valuations rising sharply over the last year.  More money will be flowing into the City’s coffers again in 2016 coming directly out of the pockets of the residents.  And while it may not seem like a big deal to many outside of Johns Creek(after all, they can afford it), it is creating problems that will soon become more and more apparent as time passes.

[read more=”Read more” less=”Read less”]Incredibly, the Reserve Growth has grown at an annualized rate of 27.35%.  Mayor Bodker and the rest of the City Council have been asked numerous times why are our reserves growing so rapidly?  What will this money be used for?  From listening to dialogue at the City Council’s work session, the perception is that the public just doesn’t understand.   I think we do. I think we also know that other cities, operating under the same general rules as Johns Creek, are not rolling up such large sums of money.

Of course, some of this money is used for day to day operations as a float for paying bills and salaries as funds come and go.  But if we did not have such a large reserve fund, there would be some other financial tool to deal with  cash flow, for instance.  There would be a cost to that technique, of course.  And there are the recommendations of how much to set aside, just in case.  But it seems to me that we have more than enough set aside for a city like Johns Creek that is collecting 10 % more than they are spending year in and year out.  In fact, we have a greater margin of error than a city that barely collects enough revenue to cover expenses.

So there is absolutely no reason that the reserve funds continue to grow at such an astonishing rate without a clear explanation.  And I firmly believe that this Reserve Fund’s size is doing much more harm than good.

The size of this Reserve Fund has not kept Mayor Bodker or the City Manager, Warren Hutmacher, from speculating that one of the wealthiest cities in Georgia has a sustainability issue (despite the rapid growth of the reserve fund).  A wish list of projects was created that totals more than $180 million dollars,which would indeed suggest there is a problem.  There would be if all of these wished for items were approved.  But they haven’t been.  And like a cloud hanging over the City, this wish list is negatively influencing the decisions of the City Council.

First, there is no sustainability issue if the City of Johns Creek sticks to what it is supposed to be doing, rather than dreaming of exceptional projects that have not been proven to be desired by the majority of residents.

Second, the Reserve Fund allows for the perception that we can afford lots of lower cost projects, regardless of the return on the investment(something cities apparently are not as concerned about as the private sector).  Consequently we see 100’s of thousands of dollars allocated for purposes that might not otherwise be approved if we had a lower reserve fund and managed our decisions much more wisely.

Many residents have attempted to point out the lopsided salary structure of the City’s Employees.  They have been met with dismissive attitudes(I am being polite) and promises that this will be looked into.

Residents have pointed out that we are overpaying for certain services, and that we are wasting funds on various projects that benefit only a handful of residents or that the residents already have access to via other means.

Residents have scrutinized the City’s financial results, offering observations and asking questions that go largely unanswered.

As the monies continue to roll into Johns Creek’s coffers, there is simply no pressure to address these concerns.  The residents and the business community are both left paying for this malinvestment.

In an effort to “move the needle” on the City’s revenue sources (too much of the load is on property owners and not enough on business), the concept of a Central Business District was launched.  Several hundred thousand dollars was voted on an approved to explore this “idea”. An outside firm, Urban Design Associates, was hired to bring the concept closer to reality.

The Central Business District has morphed from a :hypothesis” that was going to generate enough revenue to help offset the $180 million in projects on the wish list to being financially accretive.

DEFINITION of ‘Accretive’

The process of accretion, which is the growth or increase by gradual addition, in finance and general nomenclature. An acquisition is considered accretive if it adds to earnings per share.

Applying this word to our situation, if it costs us $10,000,000, and we generate $10,100,000, then it was accretive.  However, that is a very low bar for performance and a horrible return on investment.

This City Council needs to apply the brakes, and hard.  The hard earned money that they are collecting from residents at these levels, which are not being spent on services deemed needs by the residents, and is inducing the Council to approve projects that offer little return on investment, needs to be returned to its rightful owners.

That means cutting the tax rates for both businesses and residents.

One of the Council Members spoke of his concern for residents where even $30 a year makes a big difference.  He voted for a rollback.

I suggest he think about the $670 already collected from those very same residents.

Johns Creek has been a city too long now to keep finding excuses as to why we do not have the budget tools in place to have a firm and clear grip on our fiscal health.

Johns Creek pays the professionals too well to expect anything less than the best analysis from the beginning.  A 10 year financial forecast that would have landed you a D in your college finance course should not be acceptable to anyone, even as a “draft”.

The performance bar must be raised.  We have too much at stake to have sub-par performance from the very same people we are paying top dollars for in compensation.

Below is a chart I adapted from their ten year financial forecast.  I have included some crucial elements that needed to be included, for context.  Prior year data is from the Johns Creek CAFR report, 2015 data comes from the Mid Year Budget Report and years 2016-2025 are from the 10 year financial forecast.

Click on it and have a look.

Reserve Growth, Expense, Revenues, and Capital Expenses

Reserve Growth, Expense, Revenues, and Capital Expenses

These are my opinions.  I’d love to hear yours.
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An Open Demand to the Congress of These United States

Whereas the United States Congress is negotiating and voting on the Trans-Pacific Partnership in secret,

And whereas the citizens of the United States will be subject to such laws if it passes,

And whereas the same citizens cannot offer their opinions on the passage of such unseen legislation,

The American Public opposes passage of this law and strongly urges all Representatives and Senators to oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Furthermore, we demand that the text of the proposed bill be made public immediately.

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