As we watch events unfold and slowly but truly we see the truth coming out about the data, analysis, and forecasting models used to shut us down, it seems that all of this could be avoided with better math and analytical skills across the board.
And while we are only local peons(no offense to anyone), how can we drive the conversation forward that Math does matter? That proper analysis does matter? That the “experts” are not necessarily experts?
It appears that much of the modeling used for not only traffic, but the Congressional Budget Office, epidemic forecasting, economic forecasting, global warming and more, is static, for starters. It needs to be dynamic forecasting.
Beyond that, the baseline assumptions of the “experts” are just wrong. And it is costing everyone across the nation this time.
I can already hear some saying “What difference does it make? We were trying to save lives.”
Emergencies were declared
Educations were put on hold
Jobs were lost.
Homes were lost.
Constitutions at the state and national level were violated.
Drug and alcohol abuse went up.
Domestic violence increased.
What difference does it make? It’s a matter of life and death.
Most importantly, while this is the first time this has occurred it will not be the last time. And the next time, you can anticipate that governors act faster with less information than they did this time. All for your own good.
These decisions were not based individually by all fifty governors in the US either. They instead were based on a few points of failure, namely the CDC and whomever Trump has chosen to listen to on this issue. Can we afford such single points of failure for a nation of more than 340 million residents?
Math matters. Proper analysis matters.
And emotional responses can kill people, have unintended consequences and cause mor harm than good.
Often we hear that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Or that we are doing this for the greater good.
Unfortunately, we seem to have done this for the few at the expense of the many. At what cost?
Government cannot end death. No matter how much is spent or what is sacrificed.
But you have seen what government is willing to do without solid statistical analysis.
It will take away your rights.
It will decide what is essential and not essential for you.
It will cite you and fine you for not following their ill conceived demands.
It will turn your neighbors into agents of the state and have them tell on you if you do not follow their guidelines.
With all of the things we see that can and will happen in a Constitutional Republic, just imagine what happens if the wrong charismatic leader is elected.
Think about that.