Brace Yourself For the Slowing Georgia Economy

images_man_braking_car“Individual income tax collections for the month increased by 11.5 percent, while gross sales tax collections deposited during November rose a minuscule 0.2 percent. Net sales tax revenue fell by 1.3 percent.

Corporate tax revenues in November increased by $5.1 million.”

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/blog/capitol_vision/2015/12/georgia-tax-receipts-up-7-5-percent.html

There’s what you need to know in a nutshell.

Gross sales tax collections rose only 0.2% in November.  Net Sales Tax Revenue fell by 1.3%.  That says recession.

In an economy that is based on consumption, consumption must outgrow everything else.

The individual tax collections will soon follow suit as well as corporate tax revenues.

If people are not spending more money, companies do not make as much profit.  Companies that do not make as much profit do not need as many employees.  Fewer employees means lower income tax collections.

The state of Georgia did pass a Billion dollar transportation tax earlier this year.  We have begun to see that impact.  Taking a billion dollars out of gross receipts and sending it to the state, rather than to the bottom line of companies and into your banking accounts as savings has a cost.

We will see that cost in full glory shortly.  The tax, however, will not be reversed.

What we will see is everything else blamed, from warm weather to cold weather, to the strong dollar to …..

The truth, however, is much simpler.  Governments that tax too much destroy their own economic engines.

 

Johns Creek and MARTA: The REAL Reason it is NOT the Right Answer

Recently, the City of Johns Creek passed a resolution effectively saying they would not support an increase in the MARTA sales tax, which is and has been collected in Johns Creek since MARTA was formed.

That decision has led to the usual bellowing of racism.  Racism is on the path to becoming the argument of first resort when people, generally on the left, do not get their way.  It used to be the argument of last resort, but why wait?

I am sure that there will be people that claim that my views are biased as well.  They would be wrong.  I graduated from Georgia State University, and I took the train from Hightower to Georgia State daily.  Even then, it took longer by train than by car.  Which is generally true for a lot of MARTA versus car travel cases.

For example, Windward Parkway in Alpharetta to the Atlanta Airport would take 42 minutes at 1:33 p.m. on 11/23/2015.  By bus/rail? One hour and 27 minutes(if you get there as soon as the bus arrives).  Click on the link below, and it will show you current travel times by both modes.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Windward+Pkwy,+Alpharetta,+GA/Hartsfield-Jackson+Atlanta+International+Airport,+6000+North+Terminal+Parkway,+Atlanta,+GA+30320/@33.8724997,-84.6242664,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x88f59e6c38cf93d3:0x8fcf80e0cde8a243!2m2!1d-84.2459577!2d34.091148!1m5!1m1!1s0x88f4fd2fe1035901:0x4117a3ef1892b048!2m2!1d-84.4277001!2d33.6407282!3e3

We are often told “Look at how successful the METRO is in Washington, D.C.”.  Of course that system is successful.  It was designed and built the proper way a transportation system should be built.  MARTA took a different path.  Well they basically took two paths: North-South and East-West.  That’s their failure.  That they have continued to this day without modifying that plan is why MARTA is not and cannot be the answer.

Have a look at the two systems.  Here are the maps for each:

Washington METRO Map

Washington METRO Map

Washington’s METRO has multiple 8 spokes to their transportation system.  Those 8 spokes three separate transportation circular routes that allow passengers to get to where they are going without the need for everyone to transfer at one primary station if they need to change directions while traveling.

This system is a functional system, and provides for additional expansion because they can connect any two outer spokes, creating another circular path, when the demand is there.

The Washington Metro was started in 1976.  It has:

  • Six Lines
  • 91 Stations
  • 117 miles of track
  • 712,843 passengers per day
marta-map

MARTA Metro Atlanta Rail Map

Atlanta’s MARTA system is shown here:

MARTA was started in 1971:

  • Two Main Lines
  • 38 Stations
  • 48 miles of track
  • 438,900 passengers per day
  • No new stations since 2000

 

As you can see, there is no connectivity between the two main spokes, except at Five Points.  There are no circular paths for patrons to take to get to their destination.

This also creates another major problem.  If MARTA has a failure between Lindbergh and the Airport, or between Holmes and Indian Creek, it disrupts all traffic and buses muse be used.  The Washington METRO allows riders to pick another route if one of the stations happens to be on one of their circular sections of track. Continue reading

We Said This Day Would Come

Recently, I was at a restaurant and ordered a salad.  Being Gluten-free, my options are generally limited.  $10 for a salad I could make at home for $3 was ok.  After all I was at the beach.

I asked to have some chicken added.  Informed they cannot do chicken, but they could do shrimp.shrimp

“How many would you like?”, Alex asked.

I could smell the ocean from where I sat. “Six is good”, I replied.

A few minutes later, Alex came back to the table, and said “Just wanted to give you the heads up that the shrimp are $3.50…..each”.

How does one keep a straight face with that sort of news?  Better yet, how does one not laugh hysterically?

How do I keep a straight face as my friends watch what I might say.

That’s the way I felt when I got home and opened my Blue Cross rate letter for 2016. They are careful not to place you current premium anywhere for the sake of comparison.hair_0

For the record, I have not made any progress towards my $5500 deductible for the current plan year-I have not been to the Doctor for any reasons.

That’s what makes it even more shocking.  My premium has gone from $273.31 to $497.01.

Yes, you read that correctly.

81.84%blue-growth-chart

Here’s a calculator you can use as well.  Depressing, isn’t it?

http://www.marshu.com/articles/calculate-percentage-increase-decrease-percent-calculator.php

Obamacare:  The Gift that keeps on taking.

We said this day would come.  We said rates would rise sharply. No one believed us.

And now here we are.

If you want to know what is killing this economy, look no further.

Blue Cross wants to collect nearly $2,111 from me for doing…..absolutely nothing.

Had Blue Cross been actually concerned about my health, they would have told me to sit down before opening that letter.

And if I were smart?

I’d still be at the beach. But I would get my own shrimp.

I am also changing to a Medical Cost Savings plan.

My monthly contributions will be LESS than the increase that BCBS is asking from me in 2016.

To be a bit more precise, it will be 40% less than what BCBS wants from me.

And my new deductible? $500.

With that kind of savings, I will be able to head to the beach sooner rather than later.

You should explore those sort of options as well.

After all, it is YOUR money.

 

 

 

How The Federal Reserve’s Rate Policies Are Out Of Sync With Our Economic Reality

The Federal Reserve is the weakest of the links in the US economy.  Their timing is poor. They operate under two mandates and one works in direct opposition of the other.

Maintaining a stable money supply is one objective.  Full employment is another.  However, the Fed has a goal of 2% inflation and not 0% inflation, which is not stable, but inflationary.  Additionally the Fed includes data in calculations that are not inflation based on monetary policy, but rising and falling prices due to greater or lesser demand.

That leads us to their second objective: full employment.  When we get towards full employment, wages should rise and businesses compete for labor.  But as soon as this were to happen, the Fed will stomp on the brakes. Continue reading

Introducing the Fulton County Residential Authority( Or Why We Should Not have the Fulton County Development Authority)

I’d like to propose (for illustration only) a new agency for Fulton County.  We will call it the Fulton County Residential Authority(FCRA).  This authority will do for residents what the Fulton County Development Authority(FCDA) does for businesses.

Fulton County needs to attract some of the best and brightest residents out there who are looking for new homes.  There are many attractive locations, and it would be in Fulton County’s own best interest to attract them here.

We can attract them by helping them get the financing they need for their homes.  We will help them to float bonds for their residences, and offer tax incentives for those that are willing to purchase those bonds.

thankyouCurrent residents that are already in their homes?

We will offer you a hearty thank you. Thank you for not questioning our actions.[read more=”Read more” less=”Read less”]

Thank you for continuing to pay the full taxes on your property.

Thank you Thank you Thank you.   (If you are one of our valued residents come in and chat-we may be able to work a favorable deal for you as well)

We will also offer through the FCRA property tax breaks for you that will lower your cost of residency during your first ten years.  We will lower your property taxes by 50%, and then slowly increase your taxes over the years.  And if needed to keep you happy, we will work with you to help lower those taxes in other ways as well.  We are here for you.

thankyouCurrent residents that are already in their homes, and paying the full tax rates without any abatements-once again we offer you a hearty thank you!

 

 

 

Once a month, the FCRA will get together and look over the list of those who have applied for an inducement to have their residence within Fulton County.  We will be evaluating you based on what you say will be the benefits of having you here.

Are you a high income earner and will be spending dollars?  There’s a plus.

Going to be hiring a maid and lawn care and nannies?  Babies on the way? Greater purchases of goods and job creation is always a plus.

Building a new home versus a resale?  Even better. Raw materials purchased.  Building permits and inspections.   More jobs.

So we invite you to apply.  Make your case.  Help make Fulton County a better place for all.  Your FCRA will make the right choices picking the right new residents for Fulton County.

Crying-baby-cartoon_0For those current residents who will be living besides our beneficiaries of the FCRA, do not be concerned, upset, or feel cheated.  These new residents will add value.  They are bringing in new construction projects, jobs, and other intangibles.

We assure you this will not lead to overbuilding or speculation in our markets.  Do not look at these new residents as getting a tax break at your expense.  Look at it as incremental revenue that we will spend on behalf of everyone.

Let’s create the FCRA and do for residents what we are doing so well for our business community!

++++

Now that you have a sense of how the Fulton County Residential Authority might work, you can see why I would oppose the Fulton County Development Authority.

It picks winners actively and losers passively.  Current businesses pay more taxes than those that make deals with the FCDA.

It encourages speculation and overbuilding.

My list is long as to why I think the FCDA is a bad idea.  Despite the fact that “everyone has or wants a development authority”, it artificially stimulates demand for commercial space.  It also comes with a price: Property Tax Abatements.

Treat everyone and every business equally.  If the idea is accepted that lower taxes stimulate(as the FCDA can affirm by why it does what it does), then lower taxes across the board for EVERYONE.

Lower business taxes for everyone.  It’s the only equitable way to do business.

If you create a business environment that benefits ALL participants then that is the single best thing you can do.

Do not penalize current businesses by giving newcomers better deals and tax breaks.

It’s just that simple.

If you create that sort of environment for your businesses, you will not have to “induce” them to be in your community.  Instead, they will beat a path to your community, and everyone will benefit.

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This Time, It Is Going To Be Very Different

The Federal Reserve today ended it’s meeting without raising the Fed Funds Rate.  As you can see by the chart below (Time-wise it reads from right to left), the Fed Fund Rate has been near zero for a long time.

So long, in fact that it has seen the peak of our most recent economic upswing (Much shallower than the last peak AND shorter in duration) and our return back to the shores of recession, all without a single rate hike.

Those that have followed my conversations in the past will recall that I firmly and unquestionably believe that the single greatest indicator to the health of the economy is Business Profits After Taxes, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  This number cannot be as easily manipulated as GDP.

It does not give the false pretense of improvement because of government spending. Government spending does not produce profit.

What the number does reflect is after all is said and done is what have businesses earned that they get to keep from all of these efforts.   This is where the real motivation to grow, hire and expand your business originates from.

I’ve taken the data from the BEA (which anyone has access to) and created a spreadsheet with both 3 and five year rolling averages of the AGR(Annualized Growth Rates) for business profits after taxes.  This data is so simple to comprehend that I would even bet that you can see without highlighting it the last three recessions that we have had.  You can also see clearly when we exited those recessions.

And, if you look at where we are today, you understand what is about to occur.  Which brings us back to the Federal Reserve.  If you look at the chart carefully you can see that each time we were in a recession( and we admitted it), the Fed cut rates, which has the effect of giving businesses a boost to profits.

This time, it is going to be very different.  The Fed has no room to cut rates.  We are near zero already.  Business profits year over year have plummeted, and the Federal Reserve continues to tell us things are getting better.  Read their latest comments here:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/272962361/FOMC-July-Statement-Blueline

Do you think they are clued in?   I do not think so.  I think if they were, they would know that they are on the cusp of a major crisis.

There are a few more things I’d like to point out here.  The 7.5% line is the approximate level at which year over year profits need to rise in order to stimulate real economic growth.  Anything less and we contract, right-sizing the economy until we begin to grow again.   We have a tendency to always use a baseline of zero as the indicator that things are or are not improving.  This is not the baseline to use in most cases.

Three and Five year AGR for Business Profits After Taxes

Three and Five year AGR for Business Profits After Taxes

This data reflects the most recent data available (Four quarters ending 1st quarter 2015)  Business profits after taxes also represent all businesses across the US from mom and pop down the street to Apple and Amazon.

Were you to accept what I have written, and you agree that businesses do go in business to earn profits, and the goal is indeed higher profits year after year, then what needs to be done for a strong, healthy economy because rather clear.

1)  Create an environment for businesses where the regulatory and fiscal burdens are reduced-not increased- for all businesses.

2)  If new legislation is passed that reduces a company’s bottom line, do so knowing that it will indeed have a negative effect on both business expansion and job creation.  So make damn sure that the reason why you are doing it is worth it.

3) The longer business profits after taxes increase and stay above the 7.5% line, the stronger the recovery.  So it is in our best interest to try to promote that outcome rather than detract from it.  Too often governments see that improvement and decide that they can take some of those dollars with no ill effect.  They are wrong.

If you see the chart as I see it, then you will see what is coming.  Ask yourself what will accelerate profit growth for businesses over the next 1-3 years?  What is the catalyst?  And if the Fed cannot cut rates, how long will this next down turn last?

I encourage you to be prepared.  Yes the markets are near all time highs.  But do not be fooled.  Total dollars of profit by the Dow 30 companies are on track to drop more than 9% year over year.  Hard to spin that as a healthy and growing economy.  The smoke and mirrors are being supplied by-yep you guessed it- The Federal Reserve.  The low rates are fueling record share buybacks, increasing per share earnings and therefore share prices.  I believe that you will agree that this is not a positive chart.

Dow 30 Profits Analysis 20150717

The solution to what ails us is clear.  Government needs to reduce the burden they are generating for businesses, so that if the businesses can meet the market needs of customers, they have the potential for higher profits-not less.

Only then we will see the US economy have an opportunity to restore it’s economic engine to more than idle speed.

These are my opinions.  I would love to hear yours.  Please post or comment or email me any questions.

EJ

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Johns Creek: Foolin’ Ourselves

The residents of Johns Creek, Georgia have lots of things going for it.  Excellent housing, many of the best schools in the state for kids, and income levels that surpass nearly every other community.

Those positive attributes, however, have led to a flow of tax dollars into the City’s Coffers that is now doing more harm than good.

Since 2006, the year the city formed, the City has amassed $54,348,545 at the end of the fiscal year 2014, according to the City’s Certified Audited Financial Report.  That represents an increase of almost $7,000,000 per year of revenue over expenses.  With a population of around 80,000, that works out to more than $670 per every man, woman and child.

That’s an astonishing amount of money to be held per capita, and it’s growing.  Last evening, the City Council, under the lead of Mayor Mike Bodker voted to maintain the City’s millage rate at it’s current level, despite the property valuations rising sharply over the last year.  More money will be flowing into the City’s coffers again in 2016 coming directly out of the pockets of the residents.  And while it may not seem like a big deal to many outside of Johns Creek(after all, they can afford it), it is creating problems that will soon become more and more apparent as time passes.

[read more=”Read more” less=”Read less”]Incredibly, the Reserve Growth has grown at an annualized rate of 27.35%.  Mayor Bodker and the rest of the City Council have been asked numerous times why are our reserves growing so rapidly?  What will this money be used for?  From listening to dialogue at the City Council’s work session, the perception is that the public just doesn’t understand.   I think we do. I think we also know that other cities, operating under the same general rules as Johns Creek, are not rolling up such large sums of money.

Of course, some of this money is used for day to day operations as a float for paying bills and salaries as funds come and go.  But if we did not have such a large reserve fund, there would be some other financial tool to deal with  cash flow, for instance.  There would be a cost to that technique, of course.  And there are the recommendations of how much to set aside, just in case.  But it seems to me that we have more than enough set aside for a city like Johns Creek that is collecting 10 % more than they are spending year in and year out.  In fact, we have a greater margin of error than a city that barely collects enough revenue to cover expenses.

So there is absolutely no reason that the reserve funds continue to grow at such an astonishing rate without a clear explanation.  And I firmly believe that this Reserve Fund’s size is doing much more harm than good.

The size of this Reserve Fund has not kept Mayor Bodker or the City Manager, Warren Hutmacher, from speculating that one of the wealthiest cities in Georgia has a sustainability issue (despite the rapid growth of the reserve fund).  A wish list of projects was created that totals more than $180 million dollars,which would indeed suggest there is a problem.  There would be if all of these wished for items were approved.  But they haven’t been.  And like a cloud hanging over the City, this wish list is negatively influencing the decisions of the City Council.

First, there is no sustainability issue if the City of Johns Creek sticks to what it is supposed to be doing, rather than dreaming of exceptional projects that have not been proven to be desired by the majority of residents.

Second, the Reserve Fund allows for the perception that we can afford lots of lower cost projects, regardless of the return on the investment(something cities apparently are not as concerned about as the private sector).  Consequently we see 100’s of thousands of dollars allocated for purposes that might not otherwise be approved if we had a lower reserve fund and managed our decisions much more wisely.

Many residents have attempted to point out the lopsided salary structure of the City’s Employees.  They have been met with dismissive attitudes(I am being polite) and promises that this will be looked into.

Residents have pointed out that we are overpaying for certain services, and that we are wasting funds on various projects that benefit only a handful of residents or that the residents already have access to via other means.

Residents have scrutinized the City’s financial results, offering observations and asking questions that go largely unanswered.

As the monies continue to roll into Johns Creek’s coffers, there is simply no pressure to address these concerns.  The residents and the business community are both left paying for this malinvestment.

In an effort to “move the needle” on the City’s revenue sources (too much of the load is on property owners and not enough on business), the concept of a Central Business District was launched.  Several hundred thousand dollars was voted on an approved to explore this “idea”. An outside firm, Urban Design Associates, was hired to bring the concept closer to reality.

The Central Business District has morphed from a :hypothesis” that was going to generate enough revenue to help offset the $180 million in projects on the wish list to being financially accretive.

DEFINITION of ‘Accretive’

The process of accretion, which is the growth or increase by gradual addition, in finance and general nomenclature. An acquisition is considered accretive if it adds to earnings per share.

Applying this word to our situation, if it costs us $10,000,000, and we generate $10,100,000, then it was accretive.  However, that is a very low bar for performance and a horrible return on investment.

This City Council needs to apply the brakes, and hard.  The hard earned money that they are collecting from residents at these levels, which are not being spent on services deemed needs by the residents, and is inducing the Council to approve projects that offer little return on investment, needs to be returned to its rightful owners.

That means cutting the tax rates for both businesses and residents.

One of the Council Members spoke of his concern for residents where even $30 a year makes a big difference.  He voted for a rollback.

I suggest he think about the $670 already collected from those very same residents.

Johns Creek has been a city too long now to keep finding excuses as to why we do not have the budget tools in place to have a firm and clear grip on our fiscal health.

Johns Creek pays the professionals too well to expect anything less than the best analysis from the beginning.  A 10 year financial forecast that would have landed you a D in your college finance course should not be acceptable to anyone, even as a “draft”.

The performance bar must be raised.  We have too much at stake to have sub-par performance from the very same people we are paying top dollars for in compensation.

Below is a chart I adapted from their ten year financial forecast.  I have included some crucial elements that needed to be included, for context.  Prior year data is from the Johns Creek CAFR report, 2015 data comes from the Mid Year Budget Report and years 2016-2025 are from the 10 year financial forecast.

Click on it and have a look.

Reserve Growth, Expense, Revenues, and Capital Expenses

Reserve Growth, Expense, Revenues, and Capital Expenses

These are my opinions.  I’d love to hear yours.
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The Argument About the Lack of Skilled Workers

Repeatedly, the argument that we have a lack of skilled workers for positions has been used to demand that we allow immigrants into the nation to fill the positions. Clink the link to see just a few of the recent stories on this topic.

https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=lack+of+skilled+workers+in+america&FORM=HDRSC6

We have also seen businesses, through the Chamber of Commerce pursue some sort of relief through the government and universities to help with the shortage of “skilled” workers.

Frankly, this is not exactly true.  What he have is a shortage of skilled workers at the salaries that are being offered.  There is a big difference between the two.

It’s amazing that so many who bemoan the lack of rising salaries for workers are the very same people that are attempting to short circuit how free markets work.  Or that if left to their own accord, the free markets would address the imbalance.

Instead, we keep altering the supply by opening the gates of immigrants, rather than halting that process, and telling businesses that if they need qualified candidates, then to either A) Train them in house or B) Raise your salaries.

Were we to see this argument for minimum wage jobs at Wal-Mart, for instance, we’d all accept the proper answer to get more applicants:  Raise Wages and/or Iincrease benefits.

So why are we unwilling to have that very same approach applied at higher levels?

Chambers of Commerce have gotten a sympathetic ear from local, state and federal governments.  Governments, more than anything, like to solve problems.  Real or imagined, their responsibility or not, they want to solve it.

Here in Johns Creek, Georgia, I have heard this tale of lack of workers.  The city is contemplating the redevelopment of a large area of privately owned property into an area that will attract Millennials to live, work, and play.

In other words, they cannot afford to live here, the pay is not enough to attract them here, and since they are not here, there is no where to play.

The businesses that are making this claim can work to solve the problem on their own.  Raise their wages.  That is how it has worked in the past.  That is how the problem is resolved for the future.

Taxpayers should not be the ones footing the bill to train more employees for positions in an effort to hold down wages.  Nor should they be on the hook for providing affordable housing  or transportation to get to and from the jobs.

If the businesses had a shortage of any other resources, they would pay more to get the supply, importing it at a cost from where they can find it.  That is the cost of doing business.

Competition for employees is positive for everyone.  Companies have an  incentive to find, hire, and pay for the best they can afford.  Workers have the potential to advance where they work.

Until we get the government out of providing skilled workers, companies will try to take the easy path.  It’s your job to tell your governments at the local, state, and federal level that this is not the taxpayer’s responsibility.

We need to get back to a healthy economic foundation.  Getting government out of the equation at all levels is the first step in the right direction.

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